Football / The bigger picture

Insights.

Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.

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Competition selects current clubs. Result windows include all recorded competitions; points comparisons use covered current-league matches.

League insights

Eredivisie · 18 signals · 18 clubs in this view

Explore all signals ↓

Automatically selected connections · one story per club · experimental Insight Score orders stories, not teams.

FeyenoordWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score80/100

A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.

Wins in a rowLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
5
Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+5.9
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
3.4
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+1.33
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 80/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
88.7
Recency
62.1
Context
100.0
Quality
66.4

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
  • Points minus expected — Points 26; xPts 20.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Goals scored / match — Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.42; xG against 1.09. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
PSV EindhovenChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score76/100

A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.

Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
−3.9
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+1.16
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
2.6
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 76/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
77.3
Recency
62.1
Context
100.0
Quality
66.4

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 20; xPts 23.9. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.27; xG against 1.11. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
  • Goals scored / match — Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
Fortuna SittardPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score72/100

Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.

Points minus expected9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+6.2
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
−1.51
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 72/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
48.1
Context
80.0
Quality
45.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 15; xPts 8.8. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.84; xG against 2.35. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
NEC NijmegenChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score69/100

A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.

Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
−6.2
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.55
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-25 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.1
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 69/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
56.4
Recency
64.2
Context
100.0
Quality
66.4

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 11; xPts 17.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.94; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
  • Goals scored / match — Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
AjaxGoals accompanied by a positive chance balanceInsight Score66/100

Goals scored exceed the current league reference, alongside a positive observed xG profile. The sources have different windows; both describe past performances rather than the next result.

Goals scored / matchLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
3.0
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+1.07
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 66/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
71.3
Recency
48.1
Context
80.0
Quality
65.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Goals scored / match — Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.03; xG against 0.96. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.

Performance18 signals · 18 clubs

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Fortuna Sittard xG difference per match −1.51 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG51
Observed xG Fortuna Sittard −1.51 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.84xG against2.35

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.84; xG against 2.35. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 51/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.84
xG against
2.35

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Feyenoord xG difference per match +1.33 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG47
Observed xG Feyenoord +1.33 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.42xG against1.09

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.42; xG against 1.09. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 47/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
88.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.42
xG against
1.09

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
ADO Den Haag xG difference per match −1.27 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG46
Observed xG ADO Den Haag −1.27 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.93xG against2.20

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.93; xG against 2.2. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 46/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
84.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.93
xG against
2.20

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
PSV Eindhoven xG difference per match +1.16 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG43
Observed xG PSV Eindhoven +1.16 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.27xG against1.11

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.27; xG against 1.11. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 43/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
77.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.27
xG against
1.11

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Willem II xG difference per match −0.97 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG39
Observed xG Willem II −0.97 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.28xG against2.25

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.28; xG against 2.25. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 39/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
64.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.28
xG against
2.25

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Ajax xG difference per match +1.07 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG41
Observed xG Ajax +1.07 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.03xG against0.96

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.03; xG against 0.96. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 41/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
71.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.03
xG against
0.96

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Cambuur xG difference per match −0.84 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG36
Observed xG Cambuur −0.84 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.19xG against2.03

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.19; xG against 2.03. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 36/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
56.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.19
xG against
2.03

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Twente xG difference per match +0.89 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG37
Observed xG Twente +0.89 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.63xG against0.74

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.63; xG against 0.74. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 37/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
59.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.63
xG against
0.74

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
AZ Alkmaar xG difference per match +0.80 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG35
Observed xG AZ Alkmaar +0.80 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.20xG against1.40

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.2; xG against 1.4. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 35/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
53.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.20
xG against
1.40

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
GO Ahead Eagles xG difference per match −0.71 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG33
Observed xG GO Ahead Eagles −0.71 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.54xG against2.25

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.54; xG against 2.25. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 33/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
47.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.54
xG against
2.25

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
PEC Zwolle xG difference per match −0.70 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG32
Observed xG PEC Zwolle −0.70 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.20xG against1.90

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.2; xG against 1.9. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 32/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
46.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.20
xG against
1.90

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
NEC Nijmegen xG difference per match +0.55 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG29
Observed xG NEC Nijmegen +0.55 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.94xG against1.39

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.94; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 29/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
36.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.94
xG against
1.39

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Groningen xG difference per match −0.53 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG28
Observed xG Groningen −0.53 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.62xG against2.15

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.62; xG against 2.15. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 28/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
35.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.62
xG against
2.15

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Telstar xG difference per match −0.51 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG28
Observed xG Telstar −0.51 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.65xG against2.16

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.65; xG against 2.16. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 28/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
34.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.65
xG against
2.16

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Sparta Rotterdam xG difference per match +0.34 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG24
Observed xG Sparta Rotterdam +0.34 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.05xG against1.71

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.05; xG against 1.71. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 24/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
22.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.05
xG against
1.71

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Excelsior xG difference per match −0.42 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG26
Observed xG Excelsior −0.42 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.47xG against1.89

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.47; xG against 1.89. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 26/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
28.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.47
xG against
1.89

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Heerenveen xG difference per match −0.31 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG23
Observed xG Heerenveen −0.31 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.27xG against1.58

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.27; xG against 1.58. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 23/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
20.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.27
xG against
1.58

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Utrecht xG difference per match −0.27 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG22
Observed xG Utrecht −0.27 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.38xG against1.65

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.38; xG against 1.65. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 22/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
18.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.38
xG against
1.65

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →

Showing 1–18 of 18 signals

About these insights
A little context goes a long way

Read the signal. Keep the context.

Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.

Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.

01

Check the window

Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.

02

Read the chart

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.

03

Separate the sources

xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.

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