Premier League Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 24 · 12:30 Villa Park, Birmingham
Aston Villa 12th · 8 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Manchester City 1st · 21 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

Manchester City are the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 84). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Aston Villa. Aston Villa have 2.7 days of rest, Manchester City 3.7 and have to travel 113 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel113 kmRest days2.7 · 3.7Matches / 14d4 · 4
Aston Villa37%
Draw22%
Manchester City41%
Expected goals 1.92 – 2.01
Aston Villa35%
Draw27%
Manchester City38%
Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37
Aston Villa37%
Draw22%
Manchester City41%
Expected goals 1.92 – 2.01
Aston Villa29%
Draw21%
Manchester City50%
Expected goals 1.72 – 2.25
Aston Villa38%
Draw23%
Manchester City39%
Expected goals 1.77 – 1.80
Over 2.5 75% Both score 74% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
10°COvercast
  • Precipitation 42%
  • Wind 17 km/h
  • Humidity 58%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Aston Villa and Manchester City. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Aston VillaManchester City
84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91
82 Current StrengthIn forecast 91
83 AttackIn forecast 92
78 DefenceIn forecast 82
84 Form indexContext 93
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack−5%
Defense risk+40%

Manchester City

Attack−2%
Defense risk+10%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Aston VillaManchester City
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.71
1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.13 xGVia Att/Def 2.20
1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.51
57% Scored inContext 100%
29% Clean sheetsContext 43%
11.86 ShotsContext 14.57
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.29
27% On target shareContext 36%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.57
64% Box shareContext 70%
8% ConversionContext 19%
1.75 OffsidesContext 2.17
15.86 Shots allowedContext 11.43
4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
3.83 BlocksContext 3.00
3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
71% Save rateContext 72%
48% PossessionIn forecast 64%
410 PassesContext 635
339 Accurate passesContext 567
83% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.72 Team ratingContext 7.23
10.71 FoulsContext 10.71
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.57
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 2.16
1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.24
70% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.60 ShotsContext 16.50
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
35% On target shareContext 36%
9.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
65% Box shareContext 69%
13% ConversionContext 15%
1.57 OffsidesContext 1.89
15.60 Shots allowedContext 11.20
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89
4.22 BlocksContext 2.50
3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
73% Save rateContext 68%
46% PossessionIn forecast 62%
404 PassesContext 606
340 Accurate passesContext 541
84% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.91 Team ratingContext 7.10
10.50 FoulsContext 11.00
12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km555 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Newcastle1–01.6 xPts
  • W14 OctH · Fenerbahce6–02.0 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Tottenham3–21.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Nottingham Forest1–21.8 xPts
Manchester City
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel113 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Aston Villa Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 43Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesYes
Rest dayssince last match2.7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct3.7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km113 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways555 km99 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 42 / 4 / 4
Next matchdays after this one7.47.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Newcastle (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka 5T. Mings 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash
35João Gomes 8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía 44J. Manzambi 47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson
Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Aston Villa No reported absences
Manchester City No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Aston Villa+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Manchester City+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.67
Manchester City · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Aston Villa wins1 draws5 Manchester City wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.70 Over 2.570% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 0%
  • 24 May 2026Manchester City1–2Aston Villa
  • 26 Oct 2025Aston Villa1–0Manchester City
  • 22 Apr 2025Manchester City2–1Aston Villa
  • 21 Dec 2024Aston Villa2–1Manchester City
  • 3 Apr 2024Manchester City4–1Aston Villa
  • 6 Dec 2023Aston Villa1–0Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Aston VillaManchester CityForecast
Scored per game 1.002.71
Conceded per game 1.571.00
Match goals 2.573.71 3.93
Over 1.5 57%71%
Over 2.5 57%71% 75%
Over 3.5 43%43%
Both teams scored 43%57% 74%
Clean sheets 29%43%
Failed to score 43%0%
Games77
Aston VillaManchester CityForecast
Scored per game 1.802.40
Conceded per game 1.401.30
Match goals 3.203.70 3.93
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 70%70% 75%
Over 3.5 50%40%
Both teams scored 50%60% 74%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 30%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Aston VillaManchester CityLeague
Corners
Corners won3.145.57
Corners conceded4.294.14
Match total7.439.719.49
Over 8.529% 2/771% 5/7
Over 9.514% 1/757% 4/7
Over 10.514% 1/757% 4/7
Cards
Cards2.141.43
Opponent cards3.141.86
Match total5.283.294.17
Over 3.571% 5/729% 2/7
Over 4.557% 4/714% 1/7
Aston VillaManchester CityLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.40
Corners conceded5.003.70
Match total9.0010.109.49
Over 8.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 9.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Over 10.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.801.50
Opponent cards2.801.50
Match total4.603.004.17
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.550% 5/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Manchester City7 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 1 76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
1 4 16-30
5 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
5 1 61-75
3 4 76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Ipswich Nottingham Forest Oct 2320:00 Aston Villa Manchester City Oct 2412:30 Arsenal Everton Oct 2415:00 Coventry Fulham Oct 2415:00 Chelsea Tottenham Oct 2417:30 Liverpool Brighton Oct 2514:00 Manchester United Bournemouth Oct 2514:00 Crystal Palace Newcastle Oct 2514:00 Hull City Brentford Oct 2514:00 Sunderland Leeds Oct 2516:30