Liverpool vs Brighton – 25 Oct 2026

Premier League Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 5th · 12 pts · 7 played WDWLW

VS— Compare

Brighton 3rd · 16 pts · 7 played DWWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Liverpool come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Liverpool have 4.8 days of rest, Brighton 7 and have to travel 345 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel345 kmRest days4.8 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 1

Liverpool40%

Draw23%

Brighton37%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.71

Liverpool45%

Draw27%

Brighton29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Liverpool40%

Draw23%

Brighton37%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.71

Liverpool32%

Draw23%

Brighton45%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.92

Liverpool44%

Draw24%

Brighton32%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.46

Over 2.5 68% Both score 69% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

13°CDrizzle

Precipitation 82%
Wind 42 km/h
Humidity 63%

Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Liverpool

Brighton

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

85 AttackIn forecast 87

84 DefenceIn forecast 85

87 Form indexContext 94

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack−15%

Defense risk+30%

Brighton

Attack−9%

Defense risk+16%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Liverpool

Brighton

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.29

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 2.09

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +1.20

71% Scored inContext 100%

43% Clean sheetsContext 71%

15.71 ShotsContext 17.86

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

32% On target shareContext 34%

8.71 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

55% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 18%

2.14 OffsidesContext 3.50

11.86 Shots allowedContext 10.71

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83

3.86 BlocksContext 3.67

2.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

67% Save rateContext 70%

56% PossessionIn forecast 60%

482 PassesContext 509

408 Accurate passesContext 434

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.25

13.86 FoulsContext 12.86

10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29

2.57 Yellow cardsContext 2.14

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 2.01

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.59

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 60%

17.40 ShotsContext 17.10

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

33% On target shareContext 34%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.10

62% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 15%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.57

11.50 Shots allowedContext 9.80

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.20 BlocksContext 3.25

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

62% Save rateContext 72%

56% PossessionIn forecast 61%

487 PassesContext 518

417 Accurate passesContext 442

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.99 Team ratingContext 7.14

12.10 FoulsContext 11.70

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool DWLWW

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km3,228 km in 14d

Schedule load45%High

Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected

W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts

Brighton DWWWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel345 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 94 · 13 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +4.6 vs expected

W18 OctH · Crystal Palace5–02.2 xPts
W10 OctA · Sunderland2–01.6 xPts
W19 SepH · Arsenal3–01.0 xPts
W13 SepA · Coventry5–01.7 xPts
D5 SepH · Leeds1–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	High · 45	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct	7Premier League 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	345 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,228 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 4 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo

8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister

29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz

9A. Isak

Brighton Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Crystal Palace (H) 5–0, 18 Oct

1B. Verbruggen(G)

21O. Boscagli 5L. Dunk 44L. Vušković 24F. Kadıoğlu

14Chema Andrés 13P. Groß

29M. De Cuyper 26Y. Ayari 25D. Gómez

19C. Kostoulas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool No reported absences

Brighton No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Brighton+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 0.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Brighton · Away 2.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 3.33
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Liverpool wins3 draws3 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.80 – 1.70 Over 2.580% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 10%

21 Mar 2026Brighton2–1Liverpool
13 Dec 2025Liverpool2–0Brighton
19 May 2025Brighton3–2Liverpool
2 Nov 2024Liverpool2–1Brighton
31 Mar 2024Liverpool2–1Brighton
8 Oct 2023Brighton2–2Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	3.29
Conceded per game	1.14	0.71
Match goals	2.43	4.00	3.51
Over 1.5	71%	100%
Over 2.5	57%	71%	68%
Over 3.5	29%	57%
Both teams scored	43%	29%	69%
Clean sheets	43%	71%
Failed to score	29%	0%
Games	7	7

	Liverpool	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.60
Conceded per game	1.30	0.90
Match goals	3.10	3.50	3.51
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	68%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	20%	69%
Clean sheets	30%	60%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	5.71
Corners conceded	4.43	5.00
Match total	9.29	10.71	9.49
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Cards
Cards	2.71	2.29
Opponent cards	2.43	1.57
Match total	5.14	3.86	4.17
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7

	Liverpool	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	6.11
Corners conceded	4.10	4.78
Match total	10.70	10.89	9.49
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	1.50
Match total	4.40	3.20	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.