Bayern München vs Arsenal

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Wed, Oct 21 · 20:00 Fußball Arena München, München

Bayern München 10th · 4 pts · 2 played WD

VS— Compare

Arsenal 7th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayern München are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Bayern München. Bayern München are without M. Olise and M. Neuer. Arsenal are without W. Saliba. Bayern München have 4.1 days of rest, Arsenal 3.1 and have to travel 918 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel918 kmRest days4.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d3 · 3

Bayern München53%

Draw22%

Arsenal25%

Expected goals 2.08 – 1.41

Bayern München42%

Draw27%

Arsenal31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Bayern München53%

Draw22%

Arsenal25%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.37

Bayern München44%

Draw23%

Arsenal33%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.58

Bayern München51%

Draw23%

Arsenal26%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.31

Over 2.5 68% Both score 67% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (München)

10°CLight rain

Precipitation 95%
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 77%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Bayern München

Arsenal

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

96 AttackIn forecast 86

90 DefenceIn forecast 95

78 Form indexContext 92

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack−47%

Defense risk+46%

Arsenal

Attack−20%

Defense risk+82%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Bayern München

Arsenal

4.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.00

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 100%

24.00 ShotsContext 21.00

10.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00

42% On target shareContext 38%

13.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.50

57% Box shareContext 66%

17% ConversionContext 10%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.50

5.00 Shots allowedContext 4.50

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext 2.50

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

25% Save rateContext 100%

66% PossessionIn forecast 58%

609 PassesContext 576

556 Accurate passesContext 524

91% Pass accuracyContext 91%

7.06 Team ratingContext 7.17

6.50 FoulsContext 12.00

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

3.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

3.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 60%

22.80 ShotsContext 13.50

9.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

43% On target shareContext 34%

13.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

59% Box shareContext 71%

16% ConversionContext 12%

2.90 OffsidesContext 3.60

8.10 Shots allowedContext 10.80

3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.50 BlocksContext 3.10

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

70% Save rateContext 75%

68% PossessionIn forecast 57%

693 PassesContext 508

625 Accurate passesContext 441

90% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.30 Team ratingContext 7.06

8.60 FoulsContext 11.20

8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München WWDDW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,640 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts

Arsenal WLWWW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel918 km350 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayern München	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct	3.1Premier League 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	918 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,640 km	350 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 3	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct

40J. Urbig(G)

11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer

45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich

14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise

9H. Kane

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White

39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice

10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka

29K. Havertz

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayern München Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −15.9% · Defence line −18.1% of weighted minutes

MID M. Olise Core 7.75 Att −11.8% Def −9.0%
DEF M. Neuer Starter 6.95 Def −9.0%
ATT J. Musiala Rotation 6.78 Att −4.1%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): T. Buchmann

Arsenal Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals

Attack line −7.4% · Defence line −14.0% of weighted minutes

DEF W. Saliba Starter 6.90 Def −9.8%
DEF P. Hincapié Rotation 6.91 Def −4.1%
ATT C. Tzolis Rotation 6.88 Att −7.4%

Total impact vs full squads

Bayern München-0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Arsenal+0.4 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 5.00
Conceded: 0.00

Arsenal · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Bayern München wins0 draws1 Arsenal wins

Goals per game1.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

26 Nov 2025Arsenal3–1Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bayern München	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	4.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.50	0.00
Match goals	5.50	2.00	3.48
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	68%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	67%
Clean sheets	50%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Bayern München	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	3.60	1.70
Conceded per game	0.90	0.60
Match goals	4.50	2.30	3.48
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	68%
Over 3.5	70%	0%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	67%
Clean sheets	40%	60%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayern München	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	10.50	6.00
Corners conceded	3.50	1.00
Match total	14.00	7.00	9.71
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	1.50
Match total	4.00	3.00	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Bayern München	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	8.44	4.67
Corners conceded	3.78	4.44
Match total	12.22	9.11	9.71
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.60
Opponent cards	1.90	2.80
Match total	2.90	4.40	3.80
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.