Football / The bigger picture

Insights.

Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.

How to read the signals →

Explore insights

Explore competitions →

Competition selects current clubs. Result windows include all recorded competitions; points comparisons use covered current-league matches.

League insights

Eredivisie · 4 signals · 1 clubs in this view

Explore all signals ↓

No supported compound story in this view yet. Individual signals remain available below.

Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.

All signals4 signals · 1 clubs

Reset filters

Select a row to explore the evidence. Scroll to see all columns →

AZ Alkmaar xG difference per match +0.80 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG35
Observed xG AZ Alkmaar +0.80 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.20xG against1.40

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.2; xG against 1.4. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 35/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
53.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.20
xG against
1.40

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
AZ Alkmaar Goals scored per match 2.0 Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Scores53
Scores AZ Alkmaar 2.0 Goals scored per match Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours

This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.

Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.

Insight Score 53/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
2.8
Recency
96.7
Context
40.0
Quality
100.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions

Oldest → newest · scores from AZ Alkmaar’s perspective.

Date (UTC)OpponentGF–GA
2026-08-15UtrechtA4–1W
2026-08-22Fortuna SittardA2–0W
2026-08-29GO Ahead EaglesH5–2W
2026-09-06HeerenveenA3–2W
2026-09-11Willem IIH1–1D
2026-09-16SunderlandA0–1L
2026-09-20TelstarH1–0W
2026-10-10FeyenoordA0–2L
2026-10-15Hapoel Beer ShevaH2–1W
2026-10-18CambuurA2–2D
Full club analysis →
AZ Alkmaar Points above expected +2.4 11/11 covered matches · current leagues Forecast52
Forecast AZ Alkmaar +2.4 Points above expected 11/11 covered matches · current leagues Points23.0xPts20.6

Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.

Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 23; xPts 20.6. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.

Insight Score 52/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
21.8
Recency
96.7
Context
40.0
Quality
59.1

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

11/11 covered matches · current leagues

Points
23.0
xPts
20.6

Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 9.

Full club analysis →
AZ Alkmaar Both teams scored 60% Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Scores60
Scores AZ Alkmaar 60% Both teams scored Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Both teams have scored regularly in this recorded window. It describes past scorelines, rather than the probability for the next match.

Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.

Insight Score 60/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
23.2
Recency
96.7
Context
40.0
Quality
100.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions

Oldest → newest · scores from AZ Alkmaar’s perspective. Event: Both teams scored.

Date (UTC)OpponentGF–GAEvent
2026-08-15UtrechtA4–1WYes
2026-08-22Fortuna SittardA2–0WNo
2026-08-29GO Ahead EaglesH5–2WYes
2026-09-06HeerenveenA3–2WYes
2026-09-11Willem IIH1–1DYes
2026-09-16SunderlandA0–1LNo
2026-09-20TelstarH1–0WNo
2026-10-10FeyenoordA0–2LNo
2026-10-15Hapoel Beer ShevaH2–1WYes
2026-10-18CambuurA2–2DYes
Full club analysis →

Showing 1–4 of 4 signals

About these insights
A little context goes a long way

Read the signal. Keep the context.

Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.

Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.

01

Check the window

Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.

02

Read the chart

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.

03

Separate the sources

xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.

Explore methodology →