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Eredivisie · 7 signals · 1 clubs in this view
Fortuna SittardPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score72/100
Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.
- Points minus expected9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +6.2
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - −1.51
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 100.0
- Recency
- 48.4
- Context
- 80.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 15; xPts 8.8. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.84; xG against 2.35. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.
All signals7 signals · 1 clubs
Select a row to explore the evidence. Scroll to see all columns →
Fortuna Sittard
xG difference per match
−1.51
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG51
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.84; xG against 2.35. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 100.0
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 0.84
- xG against
- 2.35
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Fortuna Sittard
Points above expected
+6.2
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast65
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 15; xPts 8.8. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 66.4
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 50.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 15.0
- xPts
- 8.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Fortuna Sittard
Both teams scored
78%
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores54
Both teams have scored regularly in this recorded window. It describes past scorelines, rather than the probability for the next match.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 11.9
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Fortuna Sittard’s perspective. Event: Both teams scored.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | PSV EindhovenA | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-08-15 | CambuurH | 3–1W | Yes |
| 2026-08-22 | AZ AlkmaarH | 0–2L | No |
| 2026-08-28 | GroningenA | 3–2W | Yes |
| 2026-09-06 | ADO Den HaagA | 3–2W | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | AjaxH | 1–5L | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | Willem IIA | 1–0W | No |
| 2026-10-10 | TwenteH | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | NEC NijmegenA | 2–2D | Yes |
Fortuna Sittard
Goals conceded away per match
1.6
Last 5 recorded away matches
Scores48
An away-only conceding average that meets the descriptive threshold. Home results are excluded from this club window; the league reference includes both venues and does not adjust opposition.
Recorded scores · away only · Last 5 recorded away matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. League reference includes home and away games; this club window is away only. Context only, without opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 8.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 62.5
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 5 recorded away matches
Oldest → newest · scores from Fortuna Sittard’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | PSV EindhovenA | 2–2D |
| 2026-08-28 | GroningenA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-06 | ADO Den HaagA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-19 | Willem IIA | 1–0W |
| 2026-10-18 | NEC NijmegenA | 2–2D |
Fortuna Sittard
Scoring in a row
6
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak70
The club has scored in consecutive recorded matches, starting with the latest result. One goal is enough to extend the run.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 57.9
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Fortuna Sittard’s perspective. Event: Scoring in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | PSV EindhovenA | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-08-15 | CambuurH | 3–1W | Yes |
| 2026-08-22 | AZ AlkmaarH | 0–2L | No |
| 2026-08-28 | GroningenA | 3–2W | Yes |
| 2026-09-06 | ADO Den HaagA | 3–2W | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | AjaxH | 1–5L | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | Willem IIA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | TwenteH | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | NEC NijmegenA | 2–2D | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Fortuna Sittard
Goals conceded per match
1.9
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores51
This conceding average meets the high-goals signal threshold. Its deviation from the league reference determines its editorial interest; the threshold alone does not establish a defensive concern.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 1.1
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Fortuna Sittard’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | PSV EindhovenA | 2–2D |
| 2026-08-15 | CambuurH | 3–1W |
| 2026-08-22 | AZ AlkmaarH | 0–2L |
| 2026-08-28 | GroningenA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-06 | ADO Den HaagA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-12 | AjaxH | 1–5L |
| 2026-09-19 | Willem IIA | 1–0W |
| 2026-10-10 | TwenteH | 1–1D |
| 2026-10-18 | NEC NijmegenA | 2–2D |
Fortuna Sittard
Goals scored per match
1.8
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores52
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 4.8
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Fortuna Sittard’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | PSV EindhovenA | 2–2D |
| 2026-08-15 | CambuurH | 3–1W |
| 2026-08-22 | AZ AlkmaarH | 0–2L |
| 2026-08-28 | GroningenA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-06 | ADO Den HaagA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-12 | AjaxH | 1–5L |
| 2026-09-19 | Willem IIA | 1–0W |
| 2026-10-10 | TwenteH | 1–1D |
| 2026-10-18 | NEC NijmegenA | 2–2D |
About these insights
Read the signal. Keep the context.
Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.
Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.
Check the window
Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.
Read the chart
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.
Separate the sources
xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.
Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.
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