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Primeira Liga · 2 signals · 1 clubs in this view
GuimaraesChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score64/100
A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.
- Points minus expected8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - −5.2
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +0.32
- Goals scored / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 0.6
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 60.0
- Recency
- 51.1
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 53.3
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 5; xPts 10.2. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.39; xG against 1.07. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Goals scored / match — Primeira Liga 2026-2027: 1.38 goals per team/match, 72 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.
All signals2 signals · 1 clubs
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Guimaraes
Points below expected
−5.2
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast56
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 5; xPts 10.2. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 60.0
- Recency
- 76.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 10.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
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Guimaraes
xG difference per match
+0.32
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG23
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.39; xG against 1.07. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 21.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.39
- xG against
- 1.07
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →About these insights
Read the signal. Keep the context.
Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.
Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.
Check the window
Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.
Read the chart
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.
Separate the sources
xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.
Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.
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