1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1899 Hoffenheim. 1899 Hoffenheim had 7 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 6.9 and had to travel 271 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel271 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
1899 Hoffenheim31%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund45%
1899 Hoffenheim28%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund47%
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund47%
1899 Hoffenheim24%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund53%
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund45%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
26°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 15 km/h
- Humidity 34%
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 71
Team strength
1899 Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
46
AttackIn forecast
69
43
DefenceIn forecast
80
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimBorussia Dortmund
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.50
ShotsContext
13.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
32%
On target shareContext
34%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
62%
Box shareContext
76%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.11
BlocksContext
3.17
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
54%
Save rateContext
77%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
475
PassesContext
494
393
Accurate passesContext
422
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.02
13.50
FoulsContext
11.00
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
L
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km464 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 0 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
- L29 AugA · 1.FC Köln2–31.6 xPts
Borussia Dortmund
W
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel271 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 3 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
- W29 AugH · Hamburger SV2–02.3 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 6.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 271 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 464 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
34V. Coufal
14A. Daghim
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
8P. Wimmer
19T. Lemperle
10A. Hložek
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
39F. Mané
3W. Anton
22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier
19K. Karetsas
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Borussia Dortmund-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
No home games yet this season.
Borussia Dortmund · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 1899 Hoffenheim wins1 draws7 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.30 – 2.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 18 Apr 20261899 Hoffenheim2–1Borussia Dortmund
- 7 Dec 2025Borussia Dortmund2–01899 Hoffenheim
- 26 Apr 20251899 Hoffenheim2–3Borussia Dortmund
- 15 Dec 2024Borussia Dortmund1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 25 Feb 2024Borussia Dortmund2–31899 Hoffenheim
- 29 Sep 20231899 Hoffenheim1–3Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.00 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.70 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 4.00 | 11.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.90 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 8.11 | 11.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 3.10
Red cards0.15league 0.20
Cards 5+37%league 20%
Fouls22.3league 23.0
Penalties0.37league 0.10
Home wins51%league 80%
1899 Hoffenheim9 with this referee
Record5-1-3
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W25 Oct 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim3–11
- D9 May 25A · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
- L21 Sep 24A · Union Berlin1–23
- W3 Mar 24H · Werder Bremen2–15
- W8 Dec 23H · VfL Bochum3–13
Borussia Dortmund10 with this referee
Record5-3-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4
Pens for · against6 · 2
Reds2
- W21 Mar 26H · Hamburger SV3–22
- W1 Feb 26H · 1. FC Heidenheim3–22
- D23 Aug 25A · FC St. Pauli3–34
- L15 Mar 25A · RB Leipzig0–23
- W22 Dec 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim1 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Borussia Dortmund1 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
5
5
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
