Aarhus
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs
Play-offs Thu, Aug 27 · 19:00
Ceres Park & Arena, Århus
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel2,407 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Aarhus—%
Draw—%
Benfica—%
Weather (Århus)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 130
Team strength
Aarhus
Benfica
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
36
AttackIn forecast
81
31
DefenceIn forecast
81
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AarhusBenfica
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
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—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
2.99
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.33
ShotsContext
19.60
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.60
42%
On target shareContext
39%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
15.00
62%
Box shareContext
78%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.44
Shots allowedContext
9.00
6.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.50
BlocksContext
2.00
4.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
73%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
419
PassesContext
472
348
Accurate passesContext
403
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.10
10.80
FoulsContext
11.57
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.14
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aarhus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km4,813 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aarhus |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | High · 45 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,407 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,813 km | 3,931 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Aarhus
Confirmed XI
21Mads Hedenstad(G)
44M. Camara
33Luka Callø
26J. Andersen
11N. Links
23M. Anderson
10Kristian Arnstad
16J. Jønsson
29R. Carstensen
13J. Serra
31T. Bech
Benfica
Confirmed XI
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
44Tomás Araújo
6A. Bah
5E. Barrenechea
27Rafa
10H. Sudakov
18L. Barreiro
25G. Prestianni
14V. Pavlidis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aarhus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Aarhus · Home
No home games yet this season.
Benfica · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Aarhus wins0 draws1 Benfica wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 Aug 2026Benfica3–1Aarhus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aarhus | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Aarhus | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 3.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 4.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aarhus | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | 11.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 11.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 12.00 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Aarhus | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 7.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.43 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 130 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 4.21
Red cards0.22league 0.21
Cards 5+52%league 47%
Fouls23.0league 23.0
Penalties0.28league 0.68
Home wins42%league 68%
AarhusNo previous matches with this referee.
Benfica3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L30 Sep 25A · Chelsea0–15
- D20 Aug 25A · Fenerbahce0–05
- W12 Dec 23A · Red Bull Salzburg3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aarhus1 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Benfica1 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Aarhus9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 32 · conceded 12
9
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
8
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.