Aarhus
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 21 · 18:00
Ceres Park & Arena, Århus
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel603 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Aarhus—%
Draw—%
Lech Poznan—%
Weather (Århus)
No weather data yet
RefereeOliver Reitala
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 6
Team strength
Aarhus
Lech Poznan
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
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38
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
36
AttackIn forecast
35
31
DefenceIn forecast
23
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLech Poznan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AarhusLech Poznan
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
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—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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—
On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
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—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.00
ShotsContext
18.40
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
39%
On target shareContext
34%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
11.90
64%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.38
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.40
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.30
BlocksContext
2.10
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
81%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
427
PassesContext
470
352
Accurate passesContext
404
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.70
FoulsContext
9.00
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aarhus
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lech Poznan
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel603 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aarhus |
Lech Poznan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 603 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aarhus
Confirmed XI
1J. Hansen(G)
19E. Kahl
5F. Tingager
40J. Jensen-Abbew
39Frederik Emmery
10Kristian Arnstad
4M. Knudsen
11N. Links
23M. Anderson
31T. Bech
8S. Jørgensen
Lech Poznan
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
15M. Gurgul
59T. Yegbe
27W. Mońka
2Joel Pereira
43A. Kozubal
22R. Murawski
77L. Palma
21Pablo Rodríguez
10J. Wålemark
9M. Ishak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aarhus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lech Poznan
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Aarhus · Home
No home games yet this season.
Lech Poznan · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Aarhus | Lech Poznan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Aarhus | Lech Poznan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aarhus | Lech Poznan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 7.13 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Aarhus | Lech Poznan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 10.10 | 7.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.10 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oliver Reitala 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.31
Red cards0.17league 0.28
Cards 5+17%league 38%
Fouls20.8league 18.0
Penalties0.67league 0.44
Home wins17%league 50%
AarhusNo previous matches with this referee.
Lech PoznanNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AarhusLech PoznanAarhus10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Lech Poznan10 games · scored 22 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
9
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.