Aarhus
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Wed, Aug 5 · 18:10
Ceres Park & Arena, Århus
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel3,354 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Aarhus—%
Draw—%
Sabah FA—%
Weather (Århus)
No weather data yet
Referee · SloveniaRade Obrenovič
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 24
Team strength
Aarhus
Sabah FA
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
36
AttackIn forecast
30
31
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSabah FA
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AarhusSabah FA
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.25
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
12.50
ShotsContext
—
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
40%
On target shareContext
50%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
—
64%
Box shareContext
—
16%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
17.50
Shots allowedContext
—
8.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
5.50
BlocksContext
—
5.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
69%
Save rateContext
—
47%
PossessionIn forecast
—
426
PassesContext
—
336
Accurate passesContext
—
79%
Pass accuracyContext
—
7.01
Team ratingContext
—
12.50
FoulsContext
—
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
—
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.00
ShotsContext
—
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
41%
On target shareContext
50%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
—
65%
Box shareContext
—
14%
ConversionContext
17%
1.56
OffsidesContext
—
13.50
Shots allowedContext
—
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
3.40
BlocksContext
—
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
76%
Save rateContext
—
50%
PossessionIn forecast
—
423
PassesContext
—
345
Accurate passesContext
—
82%
Pass accuracyContext
—
7.04
Team ratingContext
—
10.70
FoulsContext
—
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aarhus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,206 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sabah FA
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel3,354 km5,805 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aarhus |
Sabah FA |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 30 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 29 Jul | 8.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 28 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 3,354 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,206 km | 5,805 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aarhus
Confirmed XI
21Mads Hedenstad(G)
19E. Kahl
5F. Tingager
25C. Rösler
39Frederik Emmery
16J. Jønsson
4M. Knudsen
23M. Anderson
10Kristian Arnstad
28James Bogere
31T. Bech
Sabah FA
Confirmed XI
92S. Pokatilov(G)
27T. Puchacz
5R. Daşdəmirov
3S. Solvet
80A. Zedadka
13I. Lepinjica
7U. Rahmonaliyev
21V. Simić
10A. Isaev
11K. Parris
20J. Mickels
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aarhus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sabah FA
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Aarhus · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Sabah FA · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Aarhus | Sabah FA | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 25% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 4 |
| Aarhus | Sabah FA | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 25% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aarhus | Sabah FA | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 6.00 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Aarhus | Sabah FA | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 6.00 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.80 | 4.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rade Obrenovič Slovenia · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.17league 4.25
Red cards0.17league 0.23
Cards 5+42%league 42%
Fouls22.8league 25.3
Penalties0.21league 0.34
Home wins46%league 50%
AarhusNo previous matches with this referee.
Sabah FANo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aarhus1 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Sabah FA4 games · scored 7 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Aarhus9 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Sabah FA10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.