AEK Athens FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round
Play-off round Wed, Aug 26 · 20:00
OPAP Arena, Athens
AEK Athens FC
12th · 1 pts · 1 played
D
First leg0–0
4–0Full time
Levski Sofia
13th · 1 pts · 1 played
D
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel525 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
AEK Athens FC—%
Draw—%
Levski Sofia—%
Weather (Athens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 149
Team strength
AEK Athens FCLevski Sofia
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L90 StrengthIn forecast
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53
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
50
AttackIn forecast
24
57
DefenceIn forecast
26
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevski Sofia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AEK Athens FCLevski Sofia
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
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—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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—
On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
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—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
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—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
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—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
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—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
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1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
—
70%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
15.20
ShotsContext
11.40
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
38%
On target shareContext
26%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
67%
Box shareContext
47%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.20
OffsidesContext
—
9.10
Shots allowedContext
12.20
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.13
BlocksContext
3.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
70%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
437
PassesContext
475
376
Accurate passesContext
408
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.83
15.20
FoulsContext
11.50
14.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AEK Athens FC
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,051 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Levski Sofia
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel525 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AEK Athens FC |
Levski Sofia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 18 Aug | 8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 18 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 525 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,051 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 21.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AEK Athens FC
Confirmed XI
1T. Strakosha(G)
3S. Pilios
44Filipe Relvas
2H. Moukoudi
12L. Rota
11A. Koita
6K. Kairinen
18R. Marin
14L. Majer
9L. Jović
25B. Varga
Levski Sofia
Confirmed XI
92S. Vutsov(G)
20Álex Centelles
31N. Serafimov
50K. Dimitrov
21Aldair
3Maicon
19E. El Moubarik
35Serginho
7Reinaldo
17Everton Bala
11A. Oko-Flex
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AEK Athens FC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Levski Sofia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
AEK Athens FC · Home
No home games yet this season.
Levski Sofia · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 AEK Athens FC wins1 draws0 Levski Sofia wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 18 Aug 2026Levski Sofia0–0AEK Athens FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AEK Athens FC | Levski Sofia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| AEK Athens FC | Levski Sofia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.43 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 1.86 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 29% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 29% | |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 71% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 14% | |
| Games | 1 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AEK Athens FC | Levski Sofia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| AEK Athens FC | Levski Sofia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.60 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 149 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.22league 2.60
Red cards0.23league 0.30
Cards 5+29%league 10%
Fouls22.9league 23.9
Penalties0.35league 0.20
Home wins40%league 50%
AEK Athens FCNo previous matches with this referee.
Levski SofiaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AEK Athens FC1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Levski Sofia1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
AEK Athens FC10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
5
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
76-90
Levski Sofia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.