Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Ajax
3rd · 33 pts · 18 played
WWWDW
First leg2–2
2–2Full time
GO Ahead Eagles
12th · 20 pts · 18 played
DDLDD
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 24). Ajax had 6.1 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 6.1 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days6.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Ajax62%
Draw22%
GO Ahead Eagles16%
Ajax61%
Draw22%
GO Ahead Eagles16%
Ajax63%
Draw21%
GO Ahead Eagles16%
Ajax54%
Draw24%
GO Ahead Eagles22%
Ajax60%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles17%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 87
Team strength
AjaxGO Ahead Eagles
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
66
AttackIn forecast
29
55
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxGO Ahead Eagles
1.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.56
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.72
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
94%
Scored inContext
83%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
14.50
ShotsContext
10.89
6.28
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
43%
On target shareContext
44%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
72%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.73
OffsidesContext
1.87
13.83
Shots allowedContext
17.83
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
4.22
BlocksContext
6.25
3.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.28
73%
Save rateContext
76%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
527
PassesContext
434
456
Accurate passesContext
357
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.39
FoulsContext
8.72
12.11
Fouls sufferedContext
10.44
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.70
ShotsContext
9.30
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
43%
On target shareContext
44%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
65%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.90
14.50
Shots allowedContext
17.60
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.60
4.10
BlocksContext
4.90
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.90
71%
Save rateContext
74%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
532
PassesContext
431
464
Accurate passesContext
352
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.00
FoulsContext
8.70
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
7.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km38 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Jan | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 38 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
2Lucas Rosa
4K. Itakura
30A. Bouwman
3A. Gaaei
48Sean Steur
6Y. Regeer
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
9K. Dolberg
43Rayane Bounida
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4J. Kramer
21M. Meulensteen
2M. Deijl
24K. Goudmijn
8H. Linthorst
17M. Suray
7J. Breum
19J. Slory
9M. Smit
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.06 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
2.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.78
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
0.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 2.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H | L 2–4 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Feyenoord | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Twente | W 3–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 3–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | L 2–4 A |
| Points | 32 of 51 · 1.88 per game | 19 of 51 · 1.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Ajax wins2 draws0 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–2Ajax
- 23 Feb 2025Ajax2–0GO Ahead Eagles
- 21 Sep 2024GO Ahead Eagles1–1Ajax
- 14 Jan 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–3Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.94 | 1.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.72 | |
| Match goals | 3.28 | 3.28 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 94% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 67% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 72% | 67% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 17% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Ajax | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 10.39 | 10.78 | 10.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 11/18 | 83% 15/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 8/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 7/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.61 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 3.55 | 3.22 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 7/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 17% 3/18 | |
| Ajax | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.10 | 10.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.33
Red cards0.11league 0.22
Cards 5+43%league 31%
Fouls23.2league 21.6
Penalties0.31league 0.29
Home wins47%league 46%
Ajax10 with this referee
Record5-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W14 Dec 25H · Feyenoord2–02
- W26 Oct 25A · Twente3–22
- D21 Sep 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–24
- L11 May 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–33
- W30 Mar 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–03
GO Ahead Eagles5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Sep 25H · FC Volendam3–01
- D6 Apr 25H · Utrecht2–21
- W18 Jan 25H · Groningen2–11
- L10 Nov 24A · Heerenveen0–12
- D28 Oct 23A · Almere City FC0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax18 games · scored 35 · conceded 24
5
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
9
5
31-45
9
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles17 games · scored 26 · conceded 31
5
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
10
31-45
1
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
7
6
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
4
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 12 · conceded 22
3
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
