Ajax vs Heerenveen – 16 Aug 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 16 · 15:45 Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

Ajax 9th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–2Full time

Heerenveen 12th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ajax were slight favourites.

Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. Ajax had 7.1 days of rest, Heerenveen 7 and had to travel 95 km.

Away travel95 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Ajax60%

Draw22%

Heerenveen19%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.99

Ajax56%

Draw23%

Heerenveen21%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.00

Ajax60%

Draw22%

Heerenveen19%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.99

Ajax52%

Draw24%

Heerenveen24%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.10

Ajax59%

Draw22%

Heerenveen19%

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.97

Over 2.5 56% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amsterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 42

Team strength

Ajax

Heerenveen

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

53 Current StrengthIn forecast 31

66 AttackIn forecast 36

55 DefenceIn forecast 40

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ajax

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ajax

Heerenveen

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

90% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.90 ShotsContext 12.10

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

35% On target shareContext 43%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

55% Box shareContext 72%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.25

11.90 Shots allowedContext 17.30

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

3.90 BlocksContext 4.89

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

73% Save rateContext 76%

55% PossessionIn forecast 52%

493 PassesContext 450

418 Accurate passesContext 370

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.97

9.70 FoulsContext 9.40

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 7.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ajax W

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km166 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 61 · 3 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected

W9 AugA · PEC Zwolle2–01.8 xPts

Heerenveen W

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel95 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W9 AugH · Twente1–01.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ajax	Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Aug	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	95 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	166 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	14	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ajax Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. ter Stegen(G)

12Caio Henrique 15Y. Baas 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa

6Y. Regeer 18D. Klaassen

68Abdellah Ouazane 10O. Gloukh 23S. Berghuis

9K. Dolberg

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

6D. Proper 16M. Linday

11L. Oyen 10R. Meerveld 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ajax Absences are shown before kick-off

Heerenveen Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Ajax+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Heerenveen+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Ajax · Home No home games yet this season.

Heerenveen · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Ajax wins2 draws1 Heerenveen wins

Goals per game1.67 – 0.83 Over 2.533% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 17%

17 May 2026Heerenveen0–0Ajax
1 Nov 2025Ajax1–1Heerenveen
19 Jan 2025Heerenveen0–2Ajax
11 Aug 2024Ajax1–0Heerenveen
11 Feb 2024Heerenveen3–2Ajax
5 Nov 2023Ajax4–1Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Ajax	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.93
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	56%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Ajax	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.60
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.70	2.60	2.93
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ajax	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	10.00	4.00
Corners conceded	2.00	8.00
Match total	12.00	12.00	10.88
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	3.00	1.00
Match total	5.00	3.00	2.19
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Ajax	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	5.11
Corners conceded	5.44	5.78
Match total	10.00	10.89	10.88
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.10
Opponent cards	1.80	1.20
Match total	3.70	2.30	2.19
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.17league 2.12

Red cards0.26league 0.06

Cards 5+21%league 12%

Fouls22.2league 21.0

Penalties0.29league 0.00

Home wins40%league 35%

Ajax3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D30 Aug 25A · FC Volendam1–13
W11 Jan 25H · Waalwijk2–11
W24 Nov 24H · PEC Zwolle2–03

Heerenveen2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

D28 Sep 25A · Utrecht2–22
W2 Mar 25H · AZ Alkmaar3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.