Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 16). Ajax usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Ajax had 7.2 days of rest, Heracles 7.9 and had to travel 120 km.
Away travel120 kmRest days7.2 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Ajax74%
Draw17%
Heracles9%
Ajax73%
Draw18%
Heracles10%
Ajax74%
Draw17%
Heracles9%
Ajax67%
Draw20%
Heracles13%
Ajax73%
Draw18%
Heracles10%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.4
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 32
Team strength
Ajax
Heracles
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
66
AttackIn forecast
7
55
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxHeracles
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
4.00
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.51
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.46
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
19.00
ShotsContext
11.50
9.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
47%
On target shareContext
39%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
72%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
4%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
13.00
Shots allowedContext
21.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
9.00
5.00
BlocksContext
7.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
75%
Save rateContext
56%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
553
PassesContext
257
494
Accurate passesContext
190
89%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.54
10.50
FoulsContext
12.50
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.20
ShotsContext
10.30
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
30%
On target shareContext
37%
12.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.38
71%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.00
Shots allowedContext
15.40
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.60
3.78
BlocksContext
4.30
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
68%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
543
PassesContext
337
468
Accurate passesContext
268
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.70
FoulsContext
12.10
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km175 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel120 km218 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 120 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 175 km | 218 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
5O. Wijndal
15Y. Baas
2Lucas Rosa
3A. Gaaei
8K. Taylor
28K. Fitz-Jim
10O. Gloukh
23S. Berghuis
7Raúl Moro
25W. Weghorst
Heracles
Confirmed XI
1F. de Keijzer(G)
5D. van der Kust
24I. Mesík
4D. Mirani
3J. Wieckhoff
32S. Scheperman
13J. Žambůrek
17T. van Gilst
10T. Bruns
7B. Limbombe
19L. Kulenović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Heracles+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Heracles · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Ajax wins0 draws0 Heracles wins
Goals per game4.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 16 Feb 2025Ajax4–0Heracles
- 20 Oct 2024Heracles3–4Ajax
- 27 Jan 2024Heracles2–4Ajax
- 12 Aug 2023Ajax4–1Heracles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.50 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Ajax | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.50 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 16.50 | 9.00 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 1.50 | 4.00 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Ajax | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.22 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.44 | 10.30 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.31league 3.33
Red cards0.09league 0.13
Cards 5+19%league 33%
Fouls18.5league 22.3
Penalties0.16league 0.17
Home wins56%league 54%
Ajax5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Apr 25A · Willem II2–10
- W16 Feb 25H · Heracles4–00
- L8 Dec 24A · AZ Alkmaar1–22
- D21 Sep 24A · GO Ahead Eagles1–12
- W3 Dec 23A · NEC Nijmegen2–10
Heracles3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.0.7 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D6 Apr 25A · Waalwijk0–01
- L16 Feb 25A · Ajax0–40
- L3 Feb 24A · NEC Nijmegen1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Heracles2 games · scored 1 · conceded 8
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
