Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Ajax
5th · 44 pts · 26 played
DWDDL
First leg3–3
4–0Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
8th · 38 pts · 26 played
DDLLD
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sparta Rotterdam. Ajax had 7.2 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 6.4 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days7.2 · 6.4Matches / 14d2 · 1
Ajax54%
Draw25%
Sparta Rotterdam22%
Ajax59%
Draw23%
Sparta Rotterdam18%
Ajax54%
Draw25%
Sparta Rotterdam22%
Ajax46%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam28%
Ajax52%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam22%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 32
Team strength
AjaxSparta Rotterdam
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
66
AttackIn forecast
32
55
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxSparta Rotterdam
1.85
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
92%
Scored inContext
81%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
14.31
ShotsContext
12.81
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.58
42%
On target shareContext
36%
10.23
Shots in the boxContext
8.31
71%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.73
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.77
Shots allowedContext
15.65
4.76
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.96
BlocksContext
4.42
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
72%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
522
PassesContext
393
450
Accurate passesContext
314
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.85
FoulsContext
8.85
11.92
Fouls sufferedContext
10.62
1.58
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.60
ShotsContext
14.30
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
38%
On target shareContext
39%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
66%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.30
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.38
BlocksContext
4.20
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
69%
Save rateContext
77%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
530
PassesContext
420
456
Accurate passesContext
340
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.02
8.80
FoulsContext
9.40
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km460 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest6.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel57 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 6.4Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 460 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
26M. Paes(G)
32T. Tomiyasu
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
2Lucas Rosa
48Sean Steur
6Y. Regeer
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
19D. Konadu
23S. Berghuis
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2Lushendry Edward Martes
8J. Kitolano
6P. Clement
11S. Mito
10Vito van Crooij
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
2.08points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-2
- Scored
- 1.85
- Conceded
- 0.85
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-6
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.77
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A |
| PEC Zwolle | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| FC Volendam | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Telstar | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Feyenoord | W 2–0 H | W 4–3 AL 0–4 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Twente | W 3–2 A | L 1–5 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | L 1–6 A |
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 43 of 75 · 1.72 per game | 37 of 75 · 1.48 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Ajax wins2 draws0 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam3–3Ajax
- 27 Apr 2025Ajax1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 22 Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2Ajax
- 9 Dec 2023Ajax2–1Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.85 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 3.15 | 2.92 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 46% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 19% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 6.29 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 11.42 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 14/24 | 92% 22/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 10/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.62 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 3.27 | 4.00 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 10/26 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 8/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 7.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.38 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.50 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 3.26
Red cards0.16league 0.18
Cards 5+28%league 29%
Fouls21.9league 21.4
Penalties0.25league 0.24
Home wins34%league 44%
Ajax2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Feb 26H · Fortuna Sittard4–10
- D27 Apr 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–11
Sparta Rotterdam3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Apr 25A · Ajax1–12
- D15 Mar 25H · PEC Zwolle1–10
- W26 Jan 25A · AZ Alkmaar2–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax26 games · scored 48 · conceded 34
9
5
0-15
7
4
16-30
12
6
31-45
9
8
46-60
3
7
61-75
8
4
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam26 games · scored 33 · conceded 43
3
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
8
31-45
4
7
46-60
6
12
61-75
12
11
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
8
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
