Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Twente. Ajax had 13.2 days of rest, Twente 14.1 and had to travel 138 km.
Away travel138 kmRest days13.2 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Ajax47%
Draw25%
Twente28%
Ajax48%
Draw26%
Twente26%
Ajax48%
Draw25%
Twente27%
Ajax40%
Draw26%
Twente34%
Ajax46%
Draw26%
Twente27%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 60
Team strength
Ajax
Twente
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
66
AttackIn forecast
41
55
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxTwente
1.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.68
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.07
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
93%
Scored inContext
79%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
14.25
ShotsContext
17.32
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.18
42%
On target shareContext
36%
10.07
Shots in the boxContext
11.25
70%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.74
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.64
Shots allowedContext
10.04
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
3.88
BlocksContext
3.12
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
72%
Save rateContext
67%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
516
PassesContext
460
443
Accurate passesContext
373
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.93
FoulsContext
10.32
12.07
Fouls sufferedContext
9.36
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.39
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.10
ShotsContext
15.60
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
40%
On target shareContext
40%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
65%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.60
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.33
BlocksContext
3.11
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
68%
Save rateContext
76%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
505
PassesContext
450
425
Accurate passesContext
360
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.01
8.90
FoulsContext
9.30
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Twente
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel138 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 14.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 115 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
26M. Paes(G)
2Lucas Rosa
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
3A. Gaaei
48Sean Steur
24J. Mokio
23S. Berghuis
11M. Godts
25W. Weghorst
17O. Edvardsen
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
43Ruud Nijstad
23S. Lemkin
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
14K. Hlynsson
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
10S. Lammers
11D. Rots
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Twente+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
2.14points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.79
Twente · Away
1.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-7-2
- Scored
- 1.79
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 4–0 HD 3–3 A | W 5–1 A |
| Groningen | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | D 3–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 AW 3–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Telstar | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 45 of 81 · 1.67 per game | 47 of 81 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Ajax wins1 draws1 Twente wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 26 Oct 2025Twente2–3Ajax
- 18 May 2025Ajax2–0Twente
- 10 Nov 2024Twente2–2Ajax
- 17 Sep 2023Twente3–1Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 1.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.07 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 2.75 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 61% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 21% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Ajax | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.69 | 5.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.23 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.92 | 9.04 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 11/26 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 10/26 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.61 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.64 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 3.46 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 11/28 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 8/28 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Ajax | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 9.33 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 2.60 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 3.20
Red cards0.28league 0.17
Cards 5+33%league 27%
Fouls22.1league 21.4
Penalties0.18league 0.24
Home wins48%league 45%
Ajax5 with this referee
Record3-2-0
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D1 Mar 26A · PEC Zwolle0–02
- W6 Dec 25A · Fortuna Sittard3–14
- W13 Sep 25H · PEC Zwolle3–12
- W5 Nov 23H · Heerenveen4–11
- D3 Sep 23A · Fortuna Sittard0–02
Twente5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W18 Jan 26A · Heracles2–05
- L17 Aug 25H · PSV Eindhoven0–21
- L6 Dec 24A · PSV Eindhoven1–61
- W3 Feb 24H · Waalwijk3–00
- W3 Dec 23A · GO Ahead Eagles3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax28 games · scored 53 · conceded 35
9
5
0-15
8
4
16-30
13
6
31-45
10
8
46-60
4
7
61-75
9
5
76-90
Twente28 games · scored 47 · conceded 30
3
4
0-15
8
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
14
7
46-60
7
6
61-75
10
7
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 20 · conceded 8
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
