Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Ajax
4th · 55 pts · 32 played
DLWWD
First leg1–2
1–2Full time
Utrecht
8th · 47 pts · 32 played
WLWLW
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Utrecht. Ajax had 7.9 days of rest, Utrecht 8 and had to travel 35 km.
Away travel35 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Ajax55%
Draw23%
Utrecht22%
Ajax54%
Draw25%
Utrecht21%
Ajax55%
Draw23%
Utrecht22%
Ajax47%
Draw24%
Utrecht29%
Ajax54%
Draw24%
Utrecht23%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 54
Team strength
AjaxUtrecht
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
66
AttackIn forecast
32
55
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxUtrecht
1.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
1.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.28
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
94%
Scored inContext
81%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.97
ShotsContext
14.53
5.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.19
42%
On target shareContext
36%
9.59
Shots in the boxContext
9.88
68%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.72
OffsidesContext
1.48
12.84
Shots allowedContext
11.91
4.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.97
BlocksContext
3.58
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
71%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
509
PassesContext
389
436
Accurate passesContext
310
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.81
FoulsContext
10.66
11.81
Fouls sufferedContext
10.56
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
1.41
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.10
ShotsContext
15.90
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
40%
On target shareContext
39%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
60%
Box shareContext
74%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.50
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.60
BlocksContext
2.57
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
75%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
468
PassesContext
372
393
Accurate passesContext
294
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.98
8.90
FoulsContext
10.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel35 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 May | 8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
26M. Paes(G)
2Lucas Rosa
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
3A. Gaaei
24J. Mokio
10O. Gloukh
6Y. Regeer
11M. Godts
9K. Dolberg
23S. Berghuis
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
44M. Eerdhuijzen
3M. van der Hoorn
23N. Vesterlund
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
10Y. Cathline
20D. de Wit
11K. Karlsson
91S. Haller
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Utrecht-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
1.94points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-4-3
- Scored
- 1.94
- Conceded
- 0.94
Utrecht · Away
1.06points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-7
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 3–4 AL 1–2 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Heracles | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Twente | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Feyenoord | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 4–0 HD 3–3 A | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Groningen | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 2–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–5 AW 4–1 H |
| FC Volendam | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Telstar | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 55 of 93 · 1.77 per game | 44 of 93 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Ajax wins1 draws3 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.50 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 9 Nov 2025Utrecht2–1Ajax
- 20 Apr 2025Utrecht4–0Ajax
- 4 Dec 2024Ajax2–2Utrecht
- 22 Oct 2023Utrecht4–3Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.91 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.22 | 1.28 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.88 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 97% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 59% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 19% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Ajax | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.59 | |
| Match total | 9.87 | 9.59 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 14/30 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 12/30 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.66 | 1.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 3.28 | 3.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 12/32 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 9/32 | 16% 5/32 | |
| Ajax | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 10.00 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 2.60 | 3.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.30league 3.13
Red cards0.15league 0.18
Cards 5+30%league 26%
Fouls19.7league 21.2
Penalties0.26league 0.21
Home wins44%league 44%
Ajax6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D21 Feb 26H · NEC Nijmegen1–11
- W11 Jan 26A · Telstar3–21
- L18 Oct 25H · AZ Alkmaar0–24
- D14 May 25A · Groningen2–22
- W15 Dec 24H · Almere City FC3–01
Utrecht3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Mar 26H · GO Ahead Eagles2–02
- D14 Dec 25A · NAC Breda1–12
- L5 Oct 25A · Feyenoord2–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax32 games · scored 61 · conceded 39
10
6
0-15
11
5
16-30
15
6
31-45
11
8
46-60
4
7
61-75
10
7
76-90
Utrecht32 games · scored 51 · conceded 41
7
6
0-15
4
5
16-30
11
5
31-45
9
11
46-60
9
4
61-75
11
10
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
6
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
