Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. Ajax had 3 days of rest, Willem II 4 and had to travel 92 km.
Away travel92 kmRest days3 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Ajax82%
Draw12%
Willem II7%
Ajax75%
Draw16%
Willem II9%
Ajax81%
Draw12%
Willem II7%
Ajax75%
Draw15%
Willem II10%
Ajax81%
Draw12%
Willem II7%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Ajax
Willem II
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
10
66
AttackIn forecast
10
55
DefenceIn forecast
9
67
Form indexContext
9
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWillem II
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxWillem II
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.80
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.20
+0.93
Goals minus xGContext
-0.53
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
21.40
ShotsContext
11.60
7.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.40
34%
On target shareContext
21%
14.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
67%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.33
10.60
Shots allowedContext
17.60
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.20
2.40
BlocksContext
3.20
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
78%
Save rateContext
61%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
545
PassesContext
338
482
Accurate passesContext
257
88%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.54
9.80
FoulsContext
10.20
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.15
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.50
ShotsContext
11.44
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
35%
On target shareContext
28%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
64%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.40
Shots allowedContext
17.33
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.33
3.40
BlocksContext
3.50
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
80%
Save rateContext
65%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
525
PassesContext
370
456
Accurate passesContext
286
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.73
9.60
FoulsContext
9.67
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.78
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
WDWLW
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km334 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 67 · 10 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Willem II
LLDLD
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel92 km244 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 2 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Willem II |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 4Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 92 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 334 km | 244 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
26M. Paes(G)
5O. Wijndal
15Y. Baas
6J. Kehrer
2Lucas Rosa
8J. Brandt
24J. Mokio
18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh
9K. Dolberg
23S. Berghuis
Willem II
Confirmed XI
26M. Delanghe(G)
24N. Tjoe-A-On
23M. Dekker
3F. Stam
5H. ter Avest
52T. Vilhena
6C. Twigt
7J. Slory
19U. van Aalst
22P. van Loon
9D. Haen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Willem II
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Willem II+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Willem II · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Ajax wins0 draws0 Willem II wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 13 Apr 2025Willem II1–2Ajax
- 27 Oct 2024Ajax1–0Willem II
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Willem II | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Ajax | Willem II | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.80 | 3.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Willem II | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.40 | 10.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 1.60 | 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Ajax | Willem II | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 10.22 | 10.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 2.50 | 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Ajax5 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Willem II5 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
6
61-75
3
2
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
7
5
76-90
Willem II10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
7
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
