Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alanyaspor were slight favourites.
Alanyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 13). Alanyaspor had 7 days of rest, Antalyaspor 8.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Alanyaspor56%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor20%
Alanyaspor55%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor20%
Alanyaspor55%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor20%
Alanyaspor48%
Draw26%
Antalyaspor26%
Alanyaspor56%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor20%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 11
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Antalyaspor
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
18
AttackIn forecast
11
24
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporAntalyaspor
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.07
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.79
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
71%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.57
ShotsContext
8.07
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.92
32%
On target shareContext
45%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
5.69
60%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.77
10.79
Shots allowedContext
15.14
3.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.36
2.89
BlocksContext
3.29
2.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
70%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
393
PassesContext
340
326
Accurate passesContext
271
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.21
FoulsContext
11.29
15.64
Fouls sufferedContext
14.07
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
7.50
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
34%
On target shareContext
41%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.11
61%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.78
11.10
Shots allowedContext
15.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.86
BlocksContext
3.30
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
67%
Save rateContext
62%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
409
PassesContext
332
342
Accurate passesContext
266
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.60
FoulsContext
11.10
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel123 km1,293 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km382 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Dec | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,293 km | 382 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
20F. Aksoy
11Ruan
58Maestro
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
14I. Hagi
22Uchenna Ogundu
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
21A. Yiğiter(G)
4H. Türkmen
5B. Öztürk
89V. Sarı
3K. Paal
8R. Safuri
23Jesper Ceesay
7B. Balcı
26N. Storm
11S. Ballet
77Yohan Boli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Antalyaspor+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.50
Antalyaspor · Away
1.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Goztepe | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Rizespor | D 0–0 H | L 2–5 H |
| Points | 16 of 36 · 1.33 per game | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Alanyaspor wins2 draws2 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 28 Mar 2025Antalyaspor2–1Alanyaspor
- 27 Oct 2024Alanyaspor1–2Antalyaspor
- 24 May 2024Alanyaspor1–1Antalyaspor
- 5 Jan 2024Antalyaspor0–0Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.07 | 1.79 | |
| Match goals | 2.07 | 2.79 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 57% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Alanyaspor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.10 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.36 | 3.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.91 | 5.07 | |
| Match total | 8.27 | 8.86 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 4/11 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 4/11 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 4.35 | 4.93 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Alanyaspor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 8.70 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.60 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.09league 4.47
Red cards0.27league 0.27
Cards 5+27%league 47%
Fouls23.8league 26.1
Penalties0.45league 0.27
Home wins55%league 35%
AlanyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
AntalyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor14 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
Antalyaspor14 games · scored 14 · conceded 25
2
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
