Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 21). Alanyaspor had 6.1 days of rest, Besiktas 14 and had to travel 563 km.
Away travel563 kmRest days6.1 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Alanyaspor33%
Draw27%
Besiktas40%
Alanyaspor34%
Draw27%
Besiktas39%
Alanyaspor33%
Draw27%
Besiktas40%
Alanyaspor27%
Draw26%
Besiktas48%
Alanyaspor34%
Draw27%
Besiktas39%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alanya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 4
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Besiktas
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
18
AttackIn forecast
60
24
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporBesiktas
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
—
50%
Scored inContext
—
50%
Clean sheetsContext
—
10.00
ShotsContext
—
1.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
10%
On target shareContext
—
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
—
54%
Box shareContext
—
5%
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
6.00
Shots allowedContext
—
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
67%
Save rateContext
—
50%
PossessionIn forecast
—
414
PassesContext
—
341
Accurate passesContext
—
82%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.60
Team ratingContext
—
18.50
FoulsContext
—
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.00
Red cardsContext
—
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
2.05
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.68
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.20
ShotsContext
15.00
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
30%
On target shareContext
39%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
65%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.86
9.20
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.67
BlocksContext
4.00
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
74%
Save rateContext
81%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
431
PassesContext
521
367
Accurate passesContext
453
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.17
12.30
FoulsContext
12.30
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,126 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Besiktas
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel563 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Aug | 14Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 563 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,126 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
88Y. Özdemir
58Maestro
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
27Ibrahim Kaya
22Uchenna Ogundu
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1F. Günok(G)
39D. Jurásek
14O. Uduokhai
35Tiago Djaló
2J. Svensson
17K. Yılmaz
4O. Ndidi
23E. Muçi
10O. Kökçü
27Rafa
9T. Abraham
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Besiktas+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Besiktas · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Alanyaspor wins3 draws0 Besiktas wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.525%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 May 2025Alanyaspor1–1Besiktas
- 21 Dec 2024Besiktas1–1Alanyaspor
- 12 May 2024Alanyaspor1–1Besiktas
- 21 Dec 2023Besiktas1–3Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 1 |
| Alanyaspor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 10.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 13.00 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Alanyaspor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.75 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 9.90 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 13% 1/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 13% 1/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.90 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.75league 4.11
Red cards0.00league 0.25
Cards 5+25%league 43%
Fouls26.5league 25.7
Penalties0.00league 0.32
Home wins50%league 39%
Alanyaspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W31 May 25H · Sivasspor2–00
BesiktasNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
76-90
Besiktas1 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
