Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alanyaspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Alanyaspor had 15.1 days of rest, Goztepe 13.9 and had to travel 355 km.
Away travel355 kmRest days15.1 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Alanyaspor40%
Draw27%
Goztepe32%
Alanyaspor40%
Draw27%
Goztepe32%
Alanyaspor40%
Draw28%
Goztepe32%
Alanyaspor33%
Draw27%
Goztepe39%
Alanyaspor40%
Draw27%
Goztepe33%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 7
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Goztepe
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
18
AttackIn forecast
39
24
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporGoztepe
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.25
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
10.88
ShotsContext
14.13
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
36%
On target shareContext
33%
6.88
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
63%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.63
Shots allowedContext
9.88
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.13
2.80
BlocksContext
3.57
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
71%
Save rateContext
94%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
363
PassesContext
246
292
Accurate passesContext
172
80%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.63
FoulsContext
17.88
15.63
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.00
ShotsContext
14.80
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
32%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
65%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.80
10.40
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
2.67
BlocksContext
3.78
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
71%
Save rateContext
80%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
394
PassesContext
244
326
Accurate passesContext
170
83%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.60
FoulsContext
17.40
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel123 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel355 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 13.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 355 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
88Y. Özdemir
58Maestro
42G. Makouta
11Ruan
27Ibrahim Kaya
14I. Hagi
22Uchenna Ogundu
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
23F. Bayır
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
2A. Kurtulan
6Rhaldney
9Juan
39Janderson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Goztepe+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Goztepe · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Rizespor | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game | 12 of 18 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Alanyaspor wins1 draws0 Goztepe wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 2 Feb 2025Goztepe0–1Alanyaspor
- 23 Aug 2024Alanyaspor1–1Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 1.63 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Alanyaspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 1.63 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 9.38 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 4.75 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Alanyaspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.14 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.70 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.73
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+43%league 55%
Fouls25.7league 26.7
Penalties0.57league 0.29
Home wins57%league 35%
AlanyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
GoztepeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor8 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Goztepe8 games · scored 11 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
