Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alanyaspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Goztepe. Alanyaspor had 5 days of rest, Goztepe 5 and had to travel 477 km.
Away travel477 kmRest days5 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alanyaspor45%
Draw25%
Goztepe30%
Alanyaspor43%
Draw26%
Goztepe32%
Alanyaspor43%
Draw26%
Goztepe31%
Alanyaspor37%
Draw26%
Goztepe37%
Alanyaspor45%
Draw24%
Goztepe30%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alanya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 20
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Goztepe
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
18
AttackIn forecast
39
24
DefenceIn forecast
36
51
Form indexContext
11
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporGoztepe
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.75
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.41
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
100%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.00
ShotsContext
15.75
2.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
25%
On target shareContext
33%
5.25
Shots in the boxContext
12.25
59%
Box shareContext
78%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.50
Shots allowedContext
19.50
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.25
BlocksContext
6.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
84%
Save rateContext
58%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
299
PassesContext
285
227
Accurate passesContext
194
76%
Pass accuracyContext
68%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.54
18.00
FoulsContext
14.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.75
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.90
ShotsContext
15.90
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
31%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.20
62%
Box shareContext
76%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.20
Shots allowedContext
15.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.11
BlocksContext
4.10
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
72%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
368
PassesContext
254
300
Accurate passesContext
175
81%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.70
14.70
FoulsContext
17.50
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
DWLW
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,906 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Goztepe
DLLL
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel477 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 11 · 1 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2026-2027, 7 Sep | 5Süper Lig 2026-2027, 7 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 477 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,906 km | 656 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
11Ruan
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
94F. Hadërgjonaj
42G. Makouta
20F. Aksoy
55B. Gezek
12M. Elia
9O. Ben Ali
22Paolo Fernandes
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1A. Özçimen(G)
26M. Bokele
4T. Altıkardeş
13E. Yildirim
12R. Akonnor
6A. Matos
5Rhaldney
2A. Kurtulan
8A. Antunes
9Juan
7André Henrique
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor+1.7 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Goztepe-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Goztepe · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 A | L 2–4 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Alanyaspor wins2 draws0 Goztepe wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 14 Mar 2026Goztepe2–2Alanyaspor
- 19 Oct 2025Alanyaspor1–0Goztepe
- 2 Feb 2025Goztepe0–1Alanyaspor
- 23 Aug 2024Alanyaspor1–1Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.75 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 4.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 75% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Alanyaspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 10.50 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.50 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Alanyaspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.43 | 9.13 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 6.00 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.90league 3.54
Red cards0.35league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 36%
Fouls24.8league 26.1
Penalties0.10league 0.36
Home wins55%league 44%
Alanyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Apr 26H · Samsunspor2–32
Goztepe3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D2 May 26A · Trabzonspor1–14
- L22 Feb 26A · Besiktas0–41
- D19 Apr 25H · Besiktas1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor4 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Goztepe4 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
