Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Alanyaspor
10th · 26 pts · 22 played
LDLDW
1–2Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 33 pts · 22 played
WWDWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Istanbul Basaksehir. Alanyaspor had 7 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 5.8 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alanyaspor33%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir41%
Alanyaspor36%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir37%
Alanyaspor34%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir40%
Alanyaspor26%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir48%
Alanyaspor33%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir40%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 14
Team strength
AlanyasporIstanbul Basaksehir
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
18
AttackIn forecast
32
24
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporIstanbul Basaksehir
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
73%
Scored inContext
86%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
12.18
ShotsContext
13.05
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.64
32%
On target shareContext
36%
7.73
Shots in the boxContext
8.86
63%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.45
Shots allowedContext
12.05
3.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.27
2.75
BlocksContext
3.70
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
72%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
387
PassesContext
434
324
Accurate passesContext
370
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.18
FoulsContext
12.82
14.32
Fouls sufferedContext
13.05
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.82
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.10
ShotsContext
14.20
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
34%
On target shareContext
42%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
66%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
18%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.00
9.40
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.38
BlocksContext
4.11
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
72%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
400
PassesContext
421
344
Accurate passesContext
356
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.80
FoulsContext
14.20
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel123 km1,126 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 5.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,126 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
3Nuno Lima
20F. Aksoy
11Ruan
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
14I. Hagi
10G. Yalçın
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
11A. Fayzullaev
9D. Selke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.36points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.91
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-4
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 0.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 3–4 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 H | W 5–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Goztepe | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 25 of 63 · 1.19 per game | 32 of 63 · 1.52 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Alanyaspor wins1 draws2 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game2.40 – 2.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 21 Sep 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Alanyaspor
- 25 Jan 2025Alanyaspor5–4Istanbul Basaksehir
- 18 Aug 2024Istanbul Basaksehir4–2Alanyaspor
- 13 Jan 2024Istanbul Basaksehir3–2Alanyaspor
- 14 Aug 2023Alanyaspor2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.23 | 2.86 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 59% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 64% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 14% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Alanyaspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.68 | 4.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.63 | 5.19 | |
| Match total | 8.31 | 10.14 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 8/19 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 7/19 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 7/19 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.91 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.23 | 4.73 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 12/22 | 73% 16/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 9/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Alanyaspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.89 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.71league 4.46
Red cards0.07league 0.23
Cards 5+50%league 47%
Fouls28.6league 26.0
Penalties0.14league 0.26
Home wins29%league 38%
Alanyaspor3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D1 Dec 25A · Samsunspor1–12
- W31 Aug 25H · Besiktas2–01
- W31 May 25H · Sivasspor2–00
Istanbul Basaksehir2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 Aug 25H · Kayserispor1–11
- L28 Apr 25A · Goztepe1–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor22 games · scored 24 · conceded 25
5
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
7
8
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir22 games · scored 38 · conceded 25
2
0-15
7
2
16-30
6
7
31-45
6
3
46-60
7
6
61-75
10
7
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
4
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
61-75
3
5
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 25 · conceded 14
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
8
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
