Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alanyaspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Alanyaspor had 15 days of rest, Kasimpasa 14.9 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days15 · 14.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Alanyaspor48%
Draw26%
Kasimpasa26%
Alanyaspor49%
Draw26%
Kasimpasa25%
Alanyaspor48%
Draw26%
Kasimpasa25%
Alanyaspor40%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa32%
Alanyaspor48%
Draw26%
Kasimpasa26%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
RefereeYigit Arslan
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 6
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Kasimpasa
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
18
AttackIn forecast
21
24
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporKasimpasa
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.92
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
67%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.42
ShotsContext
11.25
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.82
31%
On target shareContext
23%
7.08
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
61%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.33
Shots allowedContext
11.83
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.13
BlocksContext
3.45
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
72%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
377
PassesContext
334
308
Accurate passesContext
262
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.50
FoulsContext
14.58
14.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.70
ShotsContext
11.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
34%
On target shareContext
25%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
62%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.57
12.40
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.13
BlocksContext
3.56
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
73%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
369
PassesContext
330
301
Accurate passesContext
258
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.30
FoulsContext
13.30
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel123 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kasimpasa
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 14.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
58Maestro
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
14I. Hagi
12M. Elia
16U. Hwang
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
33E. Taşdemir
41A. Szalai
20N. Opoku
4Adem Arous
2C. Winck Neto
8Cafú
16A. Baldursson
12A. Ben Ouanes
7M. Fall
77P. Guèye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Kasimpasa+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 0.20
Kasimpasa · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Goztepe | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Rizespor | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 13 of 24 · 1.63 per game | 6 of 24 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Alanyaspor wins1 draws3 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 15 Mar 2025Kasimpasa2–1Alanyaspor
- 20 Oct 2024Alanyaspor1–2Kasimpasa
- 4 Feb 2024Kasimpasa2–1Alanyaspor
- 17 Sep 2023Alanyaspor3–3Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Alanyaspor | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 9.70 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Alanyaspor | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 10.13 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yigit Arslan 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.17league 4.56
Red cards0.83league 0.27
Cards 5+50%league 50%
Fouls27.5league 26.0
Penalties0.50league 0.26
Home wins50%league 38%
Alanyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D19 Aug 23A · Rizespor0–04
KasimpasaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor12 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Kasimpasa12 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
