Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alanyaspor were slight favourites.
Alanyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kayserispor. Alanyaspor had 6 days of rest, Kayserispor 6 and had to travel 467 km.
Away travel467 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Alanyaspor47%
Draw28%
Kayserispor25%
Alanyaspor52%
Draw25%
Kayserispor23%
Alanyaspor48%
Draw27%
Kayserispor24%
Alanyaspor40%
Draw29%
Kayserispor32%
Alanyaspor47%
Draw27%
Kayserispor26%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 39
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Kayserispor
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
18
AttackIn forecast
16
24
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporKayserispor
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.81
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
72%
Scored inContext
59%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.91
ShotsContext
11.59
3.84
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
32%
On target shareContext
32%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
64%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.41
10.38
Shots allowedContext
13.91
3.87
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.06
2.88
BlocksContext
3.93
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.79
67%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
394
PassesContext
349
330
Accurate passesContext
279
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.06
FoulsContext
12.78
14.16
Fouls sufferedContext
12.69
2.47
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.30
ShotsContext
13.20
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
33%
On target shareContext
30%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
65%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.56
10.20
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.11
BlocksContext
4.22
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
55%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
408
PassesContext
350
342
Accurate passesContext
283
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.80
FoulsContext
13.70
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel123 km246 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kayserispor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel467 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 May | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 467 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 246 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
30Bruno Viana
5F. Aliti
20F. Aksoy
8Enes Keskin
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
27Ibrahim Kaya
16U. Hwang
12M. Elia
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
2J. Katongo
6S. Güler
24D. Toköz
28R. Civelek
8L. Bénes
15Y. Aït Bennasser
33F. Soyalp
22I. Tuci
7Miguel Cardoso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Kayserispor+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.25points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-6
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kayserispor · Away
0.69points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-8-7
- Scored
- 0.69
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Samsunspor | L 2–3 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 5–0 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Goztepe | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–4 AL 0–4 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A | L 0–4 HL 2–4 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 33 of 93 · 1.06 per game | 26 of 93 · 0.84 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Alanyaspor wins2 draws2 Kayserispor wins
Goals per game0.40 – 0.80
Over 2.50%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets40% · 60%
- 13 Dec 2025Kayserispor0–0Alanyaspor
- 3 May 2025Alanyaspor1–1Kayserispor
- 8 Dec 2024Kayserispor2–0Alanyaspor
- 16 Mar 2024Alanyaspor1–0Kayserispor
- 6 Nov 2023Kayserispor1–0Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.34 | 2.56 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 47% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 47% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 41% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Alanyaspor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.20 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.93 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.61 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.54 | 9.80 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 12/28 | 73% 22/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 10/28 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 10/28 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 1.72 | |
| Match total | 4.59 | 4.16 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 20/32 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 16/32 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Alanyaspor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.50 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.30 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.23league 4.43
Red cards0.44league 0.22
Cards 5+62%league 45%
Fouls26.5league 26.0
Penalties0.36league 0.28
Home wins36%league 41%
Alanyaspor3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Mar 25H · Galatasaray1–22
- L19 Jan 25A · Eyüpspor0–32
- L27 Oct 24H · Antalyaspor1–22
Kayserispor6 with this referee
Record0-6-0
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D6 Dec 25A · Eyüpspor1–14
- D24 Oct 25A · Fatih Karagümrük2–25
- D30 Aug 25A · Kocaelispor1–12
- D5 Jan 25A · BB Bodrumspor1–14
- D5 Oct 24A · Istanbul Basaksehir1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor32 games · scored 37 · conceded 38
6
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
10
46-60
6
5
61-75
12
10
76-90
Kayserispor32 games · scored 24 · conceded 58
1
5
0-15
5
16-30
1
15
31-45
5
9
46-60
6
12
61-75
11
12
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
