Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alanyaspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alanyaspor. Alanyaspor had 3.8 days of rest, Kocaelispor 4.1 and had to travel 410 km.
Away travel410 kmRest days3.8 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alanyaspor43%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor29%
Alanyaspor41%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor32%
Alanyaspor42%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor30%
Alanyaspor36%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor36%
Alanyaspor43%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor29%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
RefereeYigit Arslan
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 10
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
18
AttackIn forecast
16
24
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporKocaelispor
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.04
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
73%
Scored inContext
62%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
12.42
ShotsContext
10.08
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.36
31%
On target shareContext
32%
7.77
Shots in the boxContext
6.12
63%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.87
OffsidesContext
2.24
10.42
Shots allowedContext
11.04
4.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.35
2.65
BlocksContext
3.68
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.58
68%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
398
PassesContext
360
335
Accurate passesContext
288
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.65
FoulsContext
15.20
14.31
Fouls sufferedContext
13.08
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.23
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.80
ShotsContext
9.90
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
30%
On target shareContext
28%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
61%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.40
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.30
BlocksContext
4.20
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
56%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
403
PassesContext
359
345
Accurate passesContext
287
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.30
FoulsContext
17.67
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel123 km953 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel410 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 4.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 410 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 953 km | 394 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 17 | 19.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
14I. Hagi
9S. Mounié
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
35Gökhan Değirmenci(G)
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
5B. Balogh
99R. Rivas
10K. Linetty
17D. Churlinov
98J. Nonge Boende
8H. Keïta
7Daniel Agyei
19S. Dursun
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Kocaelispor-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 0.92
Kocaelispor · Away
1.00points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-6
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 28 of 75 · 1.12 per game | 30 of 75 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Alanyaspor wins0 draws1 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 25 Oct 2025Kocaelispor2–0Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 1.04 | |
| Match goals | 2.31 | 1.92 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 31% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 12% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 38% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 38% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Alanyaspor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.10 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.55 | 3.92 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 8.36 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 8/22 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 8/22 | 16% 4/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.62 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 15/26 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 12/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Alanyaspor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 8.10 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.50 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yigit Arslan 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 4.40
Red cards0.50league 0.21
Cards 5+40%league 45%
Fouls27.4league 25.9
Penalties0.40league 0.27
Home wins40%league 38%
Alanyaspor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L23 Nov 25H · Kasimpasa1–21
- D19 Aug 23A · Rizespor0–04
Kocaelispor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D24 Jan 26A · Samsunspor0–02
- L14 Sep 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor26 games · scored 28 · conceded 32
6
6
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
8
46-60
4
4
61-75
8
9
76-90
Kocaelispor26 games · scored 23 · conceded 27
1
4
0-15
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
10
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
5
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
