Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Samsunspor. Alanyaspor had 8.1 days of rest, Samsunspor 8 and had to travel 688 km.
Away travel688 kmRest days8.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Alanyaspor38%
Draw28%
Samsunspor35%
Alanyaspor40%
Draw27%
Samsunspor33%
Alanyaspor37%
Draw28%
Samsunspor35%
Alanyaspor31%
Draw27%
Samsunspor42%
Alanyaspor38%
Draw28%
Samsunspor34%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 18
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Samsunspor
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
18
AttackIn forecast
15
24
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporSamsunspor
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
73%
Scored inContext
73%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.90
ShotsContext
12.63
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
33%
On target shareContext
30%
7.53
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
64%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.04
10.43
Shots allowedContext
11.27
3.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.52
2.78
BlocksContext
3.27
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
69%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
396
PassesContext
430
332
Accurate passesContext
360
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.00
FoulsContext
14.47
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.47
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
13.00
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
64%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
3.00
BlocksContext
3.20
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
60%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
394
PassesContext
464
330
Accurate passesContext
391
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.60
FoulsContext
14.60
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel123 km1,126 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Samsunspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel688 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 688 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,126 km | 1,238 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
3Nuno Lima
20F. Aksoy
11Ruan
17N. Janvier
58Maestro
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
9S. Mounié
27Ibrahim Kaya
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
71İ. Eğribayat(G)
15Ali Diabaté
55Y. Çift
24T. Borevković
28S. Gönül
10J. Ntcham
20Y. Kayan
2J. Mendes
21C. Holse
7E. Tavşan
9Marius
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Samsunspor-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.33points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-5
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 0.87
Samsunspor · Away
1.33points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-5
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 5–0 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Goztepe | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 32 of 87 · 1.10 per game | 41 of 87 · 1.41 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Alanyaspor wins3 draws0 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.40 – 0.80
Over 2.520%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 1 Dec 2025Samsunspor1–1Alanyaspor
- 21 Apr 2025Alanyaspor1–0Samsunspor
- 24 Nov 2024Samsunspor1–1Alanyaspor
- 18 May 2024Samsunspor1–1Alanyaspor
- 25 Dec 2023Alanyaspor3–1Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.50 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 63% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 27% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Alanyaspor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.54 | 5.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.62 | 4.21 | |
| Match total | 8.16 | 9.73 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 10/26 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 8/26 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 8/26 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.10 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 18/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 14/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Alanyaspor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 7.33 | 10.00 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.10 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.67league 4.46
Red cards0.33league 0.22
Cards 5+44%league 46%
Fouls23.9league 26.1
Penalties0.11league 0.29
Home wins61%league 41%
AlanyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
Samsunspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 May 25A · Trabzonspor2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor30 games · scored 35 · conceded 35
6
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
10
46-60
6
5
61-75
10
9
76-90
Samsunspor30 games · scored 36 · conceded 39
6
3
0-15
2
7
16-30
5
7
31-45
7
6
46-60
5
4
61-75
11
12
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
