Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 24). Alanyaspor had 7 days of rest, Trabzonspor 6.9 and had to travel 903 km.
Away travel903 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Alanyaspor27%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor46%
Alanyaspor27%
Draw26%
Trabzonspor46%
Alanyaspor27%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor45%
Alanyaspor22%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor53%
Alanyaspor28%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor45%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 18
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Trabzonspor
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
18
AttackIn forecast
54
24
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporTrabzonspor
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.96
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.07
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
75%
Scored inContext
93%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
12.18
ShotsContext
14.82
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.36
32%
On target shareContext
36%
7.64
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
63%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.23
10.36
Shots allowedContext
12.93
3.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.19
2.64
BlocksContext
3.69
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
78%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
393
PassesContext
434
329
Accurate passesContext
376
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.04
FoulsContext
11.79
14.36
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.70
ShotsContext
13.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
31%
On target shareContext
35%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
60%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.40
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.30
BlocksContext
3.22
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
58%
Save rateContext
79%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
386
PassesContext
460
325
Accurate passesContext
406
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.00
FoulsContext
12.00
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel123 km965 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel903 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 903 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 965 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
8Enes Keskin
16U. Hwang
10G. Yalçın
7E. Karaca
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
15S. Savić
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
20Wagner Pina
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
42Christ Inao Oulaï
9A. Nwakaeme
11O. Tufan
22O. Zubkov
99F. da Silva
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Trabzonspor+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.36points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-5
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 0.86
Trabzonspor · Away
2.29points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.21
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 5–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Goztepe | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | L 3–4 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 31 of 81 · 1.15 per game | 62 of 81 · 2.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Alanyaspor wins1 draws2 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 8 Nov 2025Trabzonspor1–1Alanyaspor
- 27 Apr 2025Trabzonspor4–3Alanyaspor
- 30 Nov 2024Alanyaspor2–1Trabzonspor
- 4 Mar 2024Alanyaspor3–1Trabzonspor
- 23 Oct 2023Trabzonspor1–0Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.07 | |
| Match goals | 2.39 | 3.04 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 57% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 64% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 7% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Alanyaspor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.79 | 4.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.46 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 9.92 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 10/24 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 8/24 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 8/24 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 1.68 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 4.47 | 4.11 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 16/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 13/28 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Alanyaspor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.78 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 7.56 | 11.00 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.70 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.22league 4.41
Red cards0.11league 0.21
Cards 5+22%league 44%
Fouls24.8league 26.1
Penalties0.11league 0.27
Home wins56%league 40%
Alanyaspor3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.0.7 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Jan 26H · Fenerbahce2–32
- L25 Oct 25A · Kocaelispor0–20
- D18 May 25H · Besiktas1–10
Trabzonspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W27 Sep 25A · Fatih Karagümrük4–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor28 games · scored 34 · conceded 33
6
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
8
46-60
5
5
61-75
10
9
76-90
Trabzonspor28 games · scored 55 · conceded 30
6
2
0-15
8
9
16-30
10
7
31-45
14
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
11
6
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
