Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alaves were slight favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Alaves had 7.2 days of rest, Athletic Club 6.9 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days7.2 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alaves44%
Draw28%
Athletic Club28%
Alaves37%
Draw27%
Athletic Club35%
Alaves45%
Draw28%
Athletic Club28%
Alaves37%
Draw28%
Athletic Club35%
Alaves45%
Draw27%
Athletic Club29%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.55
- Matches 20
Team strength
Alaves
Athletic Club
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
48
AttackIn forecast
51
55
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesAthletic Club
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
70%
Scored inContext
67%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.15
ShotsContext
13.36
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
32%
On target shareContext
33%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
65%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.26
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.33
Shots allowedContext
9.36
4.03
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.15
4.13
BlocksContext
2.35
2.59
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.87
63%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
417
PassesContext
409
338
Accurate passesContext
330
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.88
FoulsContext
12.79
13.48
Fouls sufferedContext
10.85
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
2.06
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
90%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.90
ShotsContext
12.00
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
29%
On target shareContext
37%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
66%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.11
OffsidesContext
2.43
12.30
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.20
BlocksContext
2.29
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
57%
Save rateContext
61%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
402
PassesContext
395
330
Accurate passesContext
315
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.66
14.80
FoulsContext
14.10
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km568 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Athletic Club
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel50 km646 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 568 km | 646 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
24Víctor Parada
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
7Ángel Pérez
4Denis Suárez
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
22I. Diabate
11Toni Martínez
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
5Yeray
2Andoni Gorosabel
18Mikel Jauregizar
30Alejandro Rego Mora
10Nico Williams
20Unai Gómez
9I. Williams
11Gorka Guruzeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Athletic Club+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.50points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-4
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.19
Athletic Club · Away
0.75points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-10
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.81
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Levante | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Girona | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 33 of 96 · 1.03 per game | 41 of 96 · 1.28 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Alaves wins3 draws4 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.33 – 0.78
Over 2.50%
Both scored11%
Clean sheets44% · 67%
- 13 Sep 2025Athletic Club0–1Alaves
- 11 May 2025Athletic Club1–0Alaves
- 15 Dec 2024Alaves1–1Athletic Club
- 16 Mar 2024Athletic Club2–0Alaves
- 22 Sep 2023Alaves0–2Athletic Club
- 9 Jan 2022Alaves0–0Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.55 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 48% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 52% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 33% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Alaves | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.60 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 5.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.97 | 3.79 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.24 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 19/30 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 16/30 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 15/30 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 4.51 | 4.18 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 23/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 16/33 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Alaves | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 11.11 | 8.70 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.70 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.90league 4.27
Red cards0.50league 0.28
Cards 5+60%league 47%
Fouls25.5league 24.5
Penalties0.55league 0.36
Home wins40%league 49%
Alaves2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D13 Mar 26H · Villarreal1–14
- D24 Sep 25A · Getafe1–12
Athletic Club1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 7.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W4 Oct 25H · Mallorca2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves33 games · scored 38 · conceded 49
7
6
0-15
3
9
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
10
46-60
7
7
61-75
10
13
76-90
Athletic Club32 games · scored 36 · conceded 46
3
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
9
10
31-45
4
9
46-60
4
7
61-75
11
12
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
3
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
