Alaves vs Osasuna – 6 Sep 2026

La Liga Gameweek 4 Sun, Sep 6 · 17:30 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Alaves 5th · 7 pts · 3 played WDW

5–2Full time

Osasuna 6th · 7 pts · 3 played DWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alaves were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alaves. Alaves had 8.9 days of rest, Osasuna 6 and had to travel 84 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel84 kmRest days8.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 3

Alaves45%

Draw26%

Osasuna29%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.13

Alaves44%

Draw26%

Osasuna31%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Alaves44%

Draw26%

Osasuna30%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.13

Alaves37%

Draw27%

Osasuna36%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.27

Alaves45%

Draw26%

Osasuna29%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.15

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

29°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 40%

Warm

RefereeJosé Sánchez

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 102

Team strength

Alaves

Osasuna

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

48 AttackIn forecast 50

55 DefenceIn forecast 50

76 Form indexContext 73

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alaves

Osasuna

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.33

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

0.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.66

100% Scored inContext 67%

67% Clean sheetsContext 67%

14.00 ShotsContext 11.67

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

31% On target shareContext 40%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

55% Box shareContext 53%

12% ConversionContext 9%

4.50 OffsidesContext 3.33

11.00 Shots allowedContext 8.67

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

3.00 BlocksContext 2.67

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.00

91% Save rateContext 75%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

297 PassesContext 413

235 Accurate passesContext 340

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.91

14.67 FoulsContext 14.00

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

100% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.80 ShotsContext 12.60

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

35% On target shareContext 38%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

65% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.88 OffsidesContext 2.83

11.40 Shots allowedContext 10.70

4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.00 BlocksContext 2.89

3.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

76% Save rateContext 63%

40% PossessionIn forecast 50%

305 PassesContext 398

239 Accurate passesContext 323

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.40 FoulsContext 12.90

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves WDW

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 76 · 7 pts vs 3.8 for an average club · +2.9 vs expected

W28 AugH · Villarreal1–01.4 xPts
D20 AugA · Rayo Vallecano1–11.2 xPts
W15 AugH · Getafe3–01.6 xPts

Osasuna DWW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel84 km1,167 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 73 · 7 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · +2.6 vs expected

W31 AugH · Getafe1–01.8 xPts
W27 AugA · Celta Vigo2–11.0 xPts
D24 AugH · Levante0–01.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alaves	Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9La Liga 2026-2027, 28 Aug	6La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	84 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,167 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

17Jonny 16V. Koski 14F. Tenaglia

21A. Rebbach 10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez 7Ángel Pérez

9M. Díaz 15L. Boyé

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Osasuna Confirmed XI

4-2-2-2

1Sergio Herrera(G)

23Abel Bretones 22F. Boyomo 24Catena 27Íñigo Arguibide

8Iker Muñoz 7Moncayola

16Moi Gómez 14Rubén García

9Raúl García 17A. Budimir

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alaves Absences are shown before kick-off

Osasuna Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alaves+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Osasuna-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Osasuna · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Alaves	Osasuna
Getafe	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 H
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

0 Alaves wins4 draws6 Osasuna wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.60 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets0% · 60%

5 Apr 2026Alaves2–2Osasuna
20 Dec 2025Osasuna3–0Alaves
24 May 2025Alaves1–1Osasuna
8 Dec 2024Osasuna2–2Alaves
4 Mar 2024Osasuna1–0Alaves
1 Oct 2023Alaves0–2Osasuna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alaves	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.00
Conceded per game	0.33	0.33
Match goals	2.00	1.33	2.58
Over 1.5	67%	33%
Over 2.5	33%	33%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	33%	33%	52%
Clean sheets	67%	67%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	3	3

	Alaves	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.00
Conceded per game	1.10	1.30
Match goals	2.50	2.30	2.58
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alaves	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	4.33
Corners conceded	7.00	4.00
Match total	12.67	8.33	10.59
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.67
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	4.67	4.47
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3

	Alaves	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	4.40
Corners conceded	6.10	5.10
Match total	11.70	9.50	10.59
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.30
Opponent cards	2.30	2.40
Match total	5.00	4.70	4.47
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Sánchez 102 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.23league 4.25

Red cards0.17league 0.22

Cards 5+67%league 44%

Fouls27.6league 24.9

Penalties0.25league 0.31

Home wins41%league 53%

Alaves8 with this referee

Record3-1-4 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.8 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds2

D15 Dec 24H · Athletic Club1–12
W28 Aug 24A · Real Sociedad2–14
L22 May 22H · Cadiz0–10
L18 Jan 22A · Real Betis0–40
W16 May 21H · Granada CF4–22

Osasuna5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L21 Feb 25A · Celta Vigo0–10
D5 Oct 24A · Getafe1–14
D6 Mar 23H · Celta Vigo0–00
L20 Nov 21A · Atletico Madrid0–12
W27 Feb 21A · Alaves1–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.