Alaves vs Real Betis – 25 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 21 Sun, Jan 25 · 20:00 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Alaves 18th · 19 pts · 20 played LLDLL

2–1Full time

Real Betis 6th · 32 pts · 20 played DWLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Betis were slight favourites.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 42). Absences weigh more on Real Betis. Alaves had 7.2 days of rest, Real Betis 3.1 and had to travel 669 km.

Away travel669 kmRest days7.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Alaves30%

Draw28%

Real Betis43%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.41

Alaves28%

Draw27%

Real Betis45%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.54

Alaves28%

Draw27%

Real Betis45%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.47

Alaves24%

Draw26%

Real Betis50%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.59

Alaves30%

Draw27%

Real Betis43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.50

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 36

Team strength

Alaves

Real Betis

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 72

48 AttackIn forecast 79

55 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alaves

Real Betis

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.65

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

60% Scored inContext 90%

15% Clean sheetsContext 35%

11.10 ShotsContext 14.70

3.58 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

31% On target shareContext 35%

7.21 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

65% Box shareContext 60%

7% ConversionContext 11%

2.80 OffsidesContext 2.13

12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.00

3.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.89 BlocksContext 3.05

2.58 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

66% Save rateContext 73%

50% PossessionIn forecast 50%

428 PassesContext 461

349 Accurate passesContext 389

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.92

14.60 FoulsContext 10.45

13.75 Fouls sufferedContext 12.75

2.15 Yellow cardsContext 1.85

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.35

60% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.80 ShotsContext 14.50

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

32% On target shareContext 37%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

69% Box shareContext 55%

7% ConversionContext 12%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.67

13.80 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.44 BlocksContext 3.20

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

59% Save rateContext 65%

49% PossessionIn forecast 50%

438 PassesContext 430

363 Accurate passesContext 360

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.83

13.90 FoulsContext 11.80

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km568 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Betis

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel669 km5,025 km in 14d

Schedule load24%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alaves	Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 24
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan	3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	669 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	568 km	5,025 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

17Jonny 5Jon Pacheco 23C. Benavídez 14F. Tenaglia

10Carles Aleñá 19Pablo Ibáñez 8Antonio Blanco 7Carlos Vicente

15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Pau López(G)

16Valentín Gómez 4Natan 5Marc Bartra 40Ángel Ortiz

21Marc Roca 6Sergi Altimira

10A. Ezzalzouli 8Pablo Fornals 7Antony

11C. Bakambu

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alaves Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Betis Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alaves+1.8 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Real Betis-2.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home 1.50points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-3
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.00

Real Betis · Away 1.30points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 2-7-1
Scored: 1.30
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Alaves	Real Betis
Atletico Madrid	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 H
Villarreal	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Oviedo	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Osasuna	L 0–3 A	W 2–0 H
Real Madrid	L 1–2 H	L 1–5 A
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 H
Barcelona	L 1–3 A	L 3–5 H
Celta Vigo	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Girona	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Espanyol	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 A
Valencia	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Elche	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
Mallorca	L 0–1 A	W 3–0 H
Getafe	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 H
Sevilla	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 A
Athletic Club	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 H
Levante	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 A
Points	19 of 57 · 1.00 per game	29 of 57 · 1.53 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Alaves wins3 draws5 Real Betis wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets22% · 67%

22 Aug 2025Real Betis1–0Alaves
18 Jan 2025Real Betis1–3Alaves
25 Aug 2024Alaves0–0Real Betis
18 Feb 2024Real Betis0–0Alaves
8 Oct 2023Alaves1–1Real Betis
18 Jan 2022Real Betis4–0Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alaves	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.65
Conceded per game	1.25	1.25
Match goals	2.05	2.90	2.55
Over 1.5	55%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	45%	47%
Over 3.5	15%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	15%	35%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	20	20

	Alaves	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.80
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	2.30	3.30	2.55
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alaves	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	5.17	4.53
Corners conceded	4.72	5.26
Match total	9.89	9.79	9.60
Over 8.5	61% 11/18	63% 12/19
Over 9.5	50% 9/18	47% 9/19
Over 10.5	50% 9/18	32% 6/19
Cards
Cards	2.25	1.90
Opponent cards	2.05	2.55
Match total	4.30	4.45	4.45
Over 3.5	70% 14/20	60% 12/20
Over 4.5	45% 9/20	50% 10/20

	Alaves	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	4.50
Corners conceded	5.11	4.70
Match total	9.22	9.20	9.60
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.00
Opponent cards	1.50	2.40
Match total	3.90	4.40	4.45
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 36 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.86league 4.17

Red cards0.25league 0.28

Cards 5+50%league 46%

Fouls23.9league 24.5

Penalties0.25league 0.36

Home wins36%league 48%

Alaves5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

L29 Nov 25A · Barcelona1–33
W5 Oct 25H · Elche3–13
L22 Aug 25A · Real Betis0–13
D20 Apr 25A · Sevilla1–12
W26 Jan 24A · Almeria3–02

Real Betis6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

W22 Aug 25H · Alaves1–02
D11 May 25H · Osasuna1–13
L3 Jan 24A · Celta Vigo1–22
W4 Nov 23H · Mallorca2–01
D24 Sep 23H · Cadiz1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.