Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alverca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alverca. Alverca had 7.1 days of rest, Rio Ave 5 and had to travel 274 km.
Away travel274 kmRest days7.1 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alverca51%
Draw25%
Rio Ave24%
Alverca49%
Draw25%
Rio Ave26%
Alverca51%
Draw25%
Rio Ave24%
Alverca44%
Draw26%
Rio Ave30%
Alverca52%
Draw24%
Rio Ave24%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 9
Team strength
Alverca
Rio Ave
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
38
AttackIn forecast
18
42
DefenceIn forecast
21
27
Form indexContext
24
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaRio Ave
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
0.51
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
83%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.83
ShotsContext
7.33
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
37%
On target shareContext
34%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
3.20
56%
Box shareContext
40%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.00
Shots allowedContext
15.83
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.20
BlocksContext
3.83
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
58%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
350
PassesContext
348
277
Accurate passesContext
285
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.00
FoulsContext
9.33
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
70%
Scored inContext
40%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.00
ShotsContext
8.40
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
32%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
58%
Box shareContext
52%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.50
Shots allowedContext
15.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.56
BlocksContext
4.20
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
60%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
349
PassesContext
350
279
Accurate passesContext
283
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.20
FoulsContext
10.10
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
DLDLW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,984 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 27 · 5 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Rio Ave
LWLLD
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel274 km3,006 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 10 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 5Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 274 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,984 km | 3,006 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 23.1 | 21.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
12Isaac James
21Sergi Gómez
14S. Baseya
55Francisco Chissumba
6D. Gui
35Rayan Lucas
20Diogo Spencer
22Figueiredo
19D. Camara
10Chiquinho
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
32Vitor Hugo
24Pedro Amaral
3S. Garcia
23F. Petrasso
20João Tomé
5A. Ntoi
44T. Nikitscher
30R. Galčík
79M. Patricio
7Diogo Bezerra
11Jalen Blesa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Rio Ave · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Sporting CP | L 1–3 A | L 0–4 H |
| Estrela | D 2–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 2 of 12 · 0.50 per game | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Alverca wins1 draws0 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 Apr 2026Rio Ave1–2Alverca
- 8 Nov 2025Alverca1–1Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 3.17 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 17% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Alverca | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.80 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 3.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 8.67 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 2.83 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Alverca | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 9.66 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.60 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe Portugal · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 4.02
Red cards0.22league 0.20
Cards 5+56%league 42%
Fouls25.8league 25.0
Penalties0.11league 0.35
Home wins56%league 40%
Alverca3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W12 Apr 26H · Casa Pia3–10
- D28 Feb 26A · Guimaraes1–12
- W12 Sep 25H · Tondela1–01
Rio AveNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca6 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Rio Ave6 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 7 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
