Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alverca. Alverca had 7.1 days of rest, SC Braga 4.9 and had to travel 300 km.
Away travel300 kmRest days7.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Alverca24%
Draw25%
SC Braga51%
Alverca23%
Draw24%
SC Braga53%
Alverca24%
Draw25%
SC Braga51%
Alverca19%
Draw23%
SC Braga58%
Alverca25%
Draw25%
SC Braga50%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
RefereeL. M. Branco Godinho
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 6
Team strength
Alverca
SC Braga
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
38
AttackIn forecast
42
42
DefenceIn forecast
59
22
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaSC Braga
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.23
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
75%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.00
ShotsContext
11.00
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
36%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
61%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
4.00
12.25
Shots allowedContext
7.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
4.00
BlocksContext
1.50
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
65%
Save rateContext
60%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
359
PassesContext
553
288
Accurate passesContext
459
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.75
FoulsContext
15.50
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
60%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.30
ShotsContext
9.60
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
34%
On target shareContext
35%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
62%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.13
BlocksContext
3.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
67%
Save rateContext
61%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
355
PassesContext
541
286
Accurate passesContext
462
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.00
FoulsContext
11.90
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
LDLD
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 22 · 2 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 4.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 300 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
4Y. Bojang
21Sergi Gómez
14S. Baseya
12I. James
35Rayan Lucas
25Ian Luccas
27Toni Tamarit
22Figueiredo
9Vivaldo Semedo
10Chiquinho
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
44A. Bajrami
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
7Diogo Travassos
34D. Tıknaz
8João Moutinho
2Víctor Gómez
50D. Rodrigues
10Pau Víctor
20M. Dorgeles
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
SC Braga · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Alverca wins0 draws2 SC Braga wins
Goals per game0.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 25 Jan 2026SC Braga5–0Alverca
- 17 Aug 2025Alverca0–3SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 2 |
| Alverca | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.67 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 12.34 | 5.00 | 8.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.50 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Alverca | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 11.55 | 7.20 | 8.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.80 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · L. M. Branco Godinho 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.17league 3.89
Red cards0.00league 0.17
Cards 5+17%league 34%
Fouls24.6league 25.3
Penalties0.50league 0.29
Home wins67%league 43%
Alverca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L9 Aug 26A · FC Porto0–24
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca4 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
SC Braga1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
SC Braga9 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
