Amed
Attack+3%
Defense risk−17%
Our take
Amed were slight favourites.
Amed were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Amed. Amed were without L. Dellova. Amed had 7.1 days of rest, Konyaspor 6.1 and had to travel 678 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel678 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Amed59%
Draw22%
Konyaspor19%
Amed55%
Draw24%
Konyaspor21%
Amed60%
Draw22%
Konyaspor18%
Amed51%
Draw25%
Konyaspor25%
Amed59%
Draw22%
Konyaspor19%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Diyarbakır)
25°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 48%
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 22
Team strength
Amed
Konyaspor
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
38
AttackIn forecast
13
46
DefenceIn forecast
31
69
Form indexContext
19
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack−7%
Defense risk+14%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
AmedKonyaspor
2.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.57
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
86%
Scored inContext
43%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
14.43
ShotsContext
11.14
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
31%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
51%
Box shareContext
65%
17%
ConversionContext
5%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.75
9.86
Shots allowedContext
12.86
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
3.00
BlocksContext
3.57
2.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
65%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
380
PassesContext
395
311
Accurate passesContext
326
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.57
FoulsContext
12.14
10.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
3.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
86%
Scored inContext
50%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.43
ShotsContext
11.30
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
34%
On target shareContext
30%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
51%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
6%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.29
9.86
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.44
3.00
BlocksContext
3.40
2.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
65%
Save rateContext
72%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
380
PassesContext
387
311
Accurate passesContext
318
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.57
FoulsContext
12.90
10.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
3.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Amed
WDWWD
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,349 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 11 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Konyaspor
LLWDD
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel678 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 19 · 5 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Amed |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 6.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 678 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,349 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Amed
Confirmed XI
40A. Lafont(G)
17C. Meraş
4D. Bates
21Mehmet Yeşil
7E. Krasniqi
8F. Soyalp
22R. Raveloson
10S. Ballet
91D. Sabi'a
93R. Lutin
99G. Orban
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
13B. Güngördü(G)
26A. Masuaku
15C. Awaziem
22R. Baniya
17Y. Andzouana
8M. Jevtović
77M. İbrahimoğlu
7Diogo Gonçalves
66R. Tóth
9D. Türüç
11J. Muleka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Amed
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −4.8% · Defence line −15.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF L. Dellova Starter 7.16 Def −15.0%
- ATT Y. Sor Rotation 6.77 Att −3.5%
- MID G. Gül Rotation 6.90 Att −1.2% Def −0.9%
Konyaspor
Attack line −1.9% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT E. Destan Rotation 6.58 Att −1.9%
Total impact vs full squads
- Amed-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Konyaspor+0.7 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Amed · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Konyaspor · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Amed | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 5–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Erzurumspor FK | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Amed | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.43 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 1.71 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 29% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 29% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 29% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Amed | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.43 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 2.30 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 50% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Amed | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.43 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.00 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.43 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.57 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.43 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Amed | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.20 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.43 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.57 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.00 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.68league 3.91
Red cards0.32league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls23.8league 24.4
Penalties0.14league 0.35
Home wins50%league 46%
AmedNo previous matches with this referee.
Konyaspor3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L15 Dec 25A · Fenerbahce0–42
- L22 Oct 25H · Besiktas0–21
- W10 May 25H · Rizespor2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Amed7 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Konyaspor7 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Amed7 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
