Amed
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Amed were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Amed. Amed had 7 days of rest, Trabzonspor 4 and had to travel 346 km.
Away travel346 kmRest days7 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3
Amed42%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor33%
Amed36%
Draw26%
Trabzonspor38%
Amed41%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor34%
Amed34%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor41%
Amed42%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor33%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Diyarbakır)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 29
Team strength
Amed
Trabzonspor
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
38
AttackIn forecast
54
46
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AmedTrabzonspor
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.91
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
50%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.50
ShotsContext
16.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
24%
On target shareContext
41%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
52%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
8.00
Shots allowedContext
10.50
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
—
BlocksContext
2.00
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
50%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
453
PassesContext
484
387
Accurate passesContext
420
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.08
13.00
FoulsContext
11.00
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
17.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
—
Scored inContext
70%
—
Clean sheetsContext
0%
—
ShotsContext
14.00
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
—
On target shareContext
31%
—
Shots in the boxContext
9.13
—
Box shareContext
66%
—
ConversionContext
8%
—
OffsidesContext
2.67
—
Shots allowedContext
13.13
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
—
BlocksContext
3.20
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
—
Save rateContext
68%
—
PossessionIn forecast
55%
—
PassesContext
450
—
Accurate passesContext
390
—
Pass accuracyContext
87%
—
Team ratingContext
6.94
—
FoulsContext
10.60
—
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
—
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
—
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Amed
WL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,234 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 43 · 3 pts vs 3.8 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Amed |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 31 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 24 Aug | 4UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 346 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,234 km | 3,583 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Amed
Confirmed XI
40A. Lafont(G)
17C. Meraş
5L. Dellova
4D. Bates
7E. Krasniqi
22R. Raveloson
18G. Gül
11Y. Sor
91D. Sabi'a
10S. Ballet
45M. Diagne
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
15S. Savić
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
57M. Kabasakal
6Fabinho
70N. Saviolo
10Mohamed Salah
7E. Muçi
30E. Onuachu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Amed
Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Amed+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Trabzonspor-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Amed · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Trabzonspor · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Amed | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Amed | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 2 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Amed | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 7.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.50 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 1.50 | 4.50 | 3.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Amed | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.00 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 1.50 | 4.60 | 3.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.38league 3.08
Red cards0.21league 0.16
Cards 5+62%league 28%
Fouls24.8league 26.0
Penalties0.34league 0.32
Home wins38%league 40%
AmedNo previous matches with this referee.
Trabzonspor3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L17 May 26H · Genclerbirligi0–31
- W7 Dec 25A · Goztepe2–14
- L10 May 25H · Galatasaray0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Amed2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Trabzonspor2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Amed2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
