Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 41). Anderlecht had 6.1 days of rest, Antwerp 6.3 and had to travel 42 km.
Away travel42 kmRest days6.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Anderlecht48%
Draw26%
Antwerp26%
Anderlecht47%
Draw26%
Antwerp26%
Anderlecht48%
Draw26%
Antwerp26%
Anderlecht40%
Draw27%
Antwerp33%
Anderlecht47%
Draw26%
Antwerp26%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 35
Team strength
Anderlecht
Antwerp
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
37
AttackIn forecast
24
52
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtAntwerp
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
83%
Scored inContext
86%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.83
ShotsContext
11.00
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.29
38%
On target shareContext
39%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.86
61%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
3.25
OffsidesContext
2.86
11.83
Shots allowedContext
14.29
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.57
3.83
BlocksContext
3.29
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
55%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
419
PassesContext
375
341
Accurate passesContext
307
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.96
15.17
FoulsContext
11.14
8.83
Fouls sufferedContext
14.86
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.89
ShotsContext
12.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
40%
On target shareContext
40%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
60%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.78
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
3.44
BlocksContext
2.80
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
63%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
440
PassesContext
440
368
Accurate passesContext
367
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.08
16.44
FoulsContext
11.30
8.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel42 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 6.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 42 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
24E. Llansana
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
29M. Stroeykens
21C. Huerta
20L. Vázquez
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
15Y. Thoelen(G)
26R. Bozhinov
33Z. Van Den Bosch
4Yuto Tsunashima
8D. Praet
5D. Foulon
34M. Diawara
10I. Babadi
24T. Somers
18V. Janssen
9M. Al Sahafi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Antwerp · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 5–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Anderlecht wins1 draws0 Antwerp wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 17 Dec 2023Antwerp1–1Anderlecht
- 6 Aug 2023Anderlecht1–0Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.57 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 43% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 86% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 14% | |
| Games | 6 | 7 |
| Anderlecht | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.57 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 43% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 86% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 14% | |
| Games | 6 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 8.57 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.71 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 5.42 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Anderlecht | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.40 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.70 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.72
Red cards0.14league 0.25
Cards 5+37%league 40%
Fouls23.2league 23.1
Penalties0.31league 0.37
Home wins46%league 44%
Anderlecht5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L16 Mar 24H · Kortrijk0–11
- W25 Feb 24A · Club Brugge KV2–14
- W11 Feb 24A · Charleroi3–10
- D17 Dec 23A · Antwerp1–14
- W26 Nov 23H · RWDM2–11
Antwerp2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Jan 24H · Charleroi4–11
- D17 Dec 23H · Anderlecht1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht6 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Antwerp7 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
