UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs Play-offs Thu, Aug 27 · 19:30 Lotto Park, Brussel
Anderlecht 8th · 3 pts · 1 played
First leg3–0 3–0Full time
Kairat Almaty 20th · 0 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel5,337 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Anderlecht—%
Draw—%
Kairat Almaty—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brussel)

No weather data yet

Referee · NorwayEspen Eskas
  • Cards per match 4.1
  • Penalties per match 0.45
  • Matches 29

Team strength

AnderlechtKairat Almaty
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 12
37 AttackIn forecast 12
52 DefenceIn forecast 15
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Kairat Almaty

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AnderlechtKairat Almaty
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.62 xGVia Att/Def 0.37
1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.80
+0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.43
90% Scored inContext 50%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
18.50 ShotsContext 8.00
6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.25
34% On target shareContext 28%
11.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.33
63% Box shareContext 52%
10% ConversionContext 9%
1.50 OffsidesContext —
10.67 Shots allowedContext 16.75
3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25
3.17 BlocksContext 3.40
1.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
48% Save rateContext 64%
53% PossessionIn forecast 43%
476 PassesContext 418
394 Accurate passesContext 323
83% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.40
14.88 FoulsContext 10.40
11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Anderlecht
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km10,755 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 44 · 3 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
  • L16 AugA · SK Beveren0–11.6 xPts
  • W9 AugH · RAAL La Louvière2–12.0 xPts
Kairat Almaty
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel5,337 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Anderlecht Kairat Almaty
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug7.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km5,337 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways10,755 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 3 / 60 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one2.9—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Anderlecht Confirmed XI
4-3-3
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson 4G. Biancone 27L. Pétrot 79A. Maamar
18L. Ambros 55M. Kana 24E. Llansana
61J. Bethume 14D. Sikan 9M. Cvetković
Kairat Almaty Confirmed XI
5-3-2
82S. Kalmurza(G)
3Luís Mata 5L. Kurgin 8O. Baybek 4D. Kasabulat 20E. Tapalov
19O. Jukkola 13J. Oksanen 6A. Sadybekov
81I. Bekbolat 28Marc Gual

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Anderlecht Absences are shown before kick-off
Kairat Almaty Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Anderlecht · Home No home games yet this season.
Kairat Almaty · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Anderlecht wins0 draws0 Kairat Almaty wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%
  • 20 Aug 2026Kairat Almaty0–3Anderlecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AnderlechtKairat AlmatyForecast
Scored per game 3.000.00
Conceded per game 0.003.00
Match goals 3.003.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 0%0%
Clean sheets 100%0%
Failed to score 0%100%
Games11
AnderlechtKairat AlmatyForecast
Scored per game 1.700.20
Conceded per game 1.201.20
Match goals 2.901.40
Over 1.5 70%20%
Over 2.5 60%20%
Over 3.5 40%0%
Both teams scored 60%0%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 20%80%
Games105

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AnderlechtKairat AlmatyLeague
Corners
Corners won8.002.00
Corners conceded2.008.00
Match total10.0010.009.81
Over 8.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 9.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 10.50% 0/10% 0/1
Cards
Cards4.002.00
Opponent cards2.004.00
Match total6.006.004.38
Over 3.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 4.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
AnderlechtKairat AlmatyLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.00
Corners conceded3.436.67
Match total9.4310.679.81
Over 8.557% 4/7100% 3/3
Over 9.557% 4/767% 2/3
Over 10.543% 3/733% 1/3
Cards
Cards2.301.70
Opponent cards2.402.60
Match total4.704.304.38
Over 3.590% 9/1060% 6/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Espen Eskas Norway · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 4.14
Red cards0.14league 0.18
Cards 5+41%league 45%
Fouls22.2league 23.7
Penalties0.45league 0.59
Home wins48%league 59%
Anderlecht

No previous matches with this referee.

Kairat Almaty1 with this referee
Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D20 Aug 25A · Celtic0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Anderlecht1 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Kairat Almaty1 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
3 3 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 3 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
5 3 76-90
Kairat Almaty10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1 5 0-15
1 16-30
1 4 31-45
46-60
1 2 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.