Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were clear favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Anderlecht. Anderlecht had 4.1 days of rest, Kortrijk 5.1 and had to travel 76 km.
Away travel76 kmRest days4.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Anderlecht72%
Draw17%
Kortrijk11%
Anderlecht68%
Draw19%
Kortrijk13%
Anderlecht72%
Draw17%
Kortrijk11%
Anderlecht65%
Draw20%
Kortrijk15%
Anderlecht71%
Draw17%
Kortrijk12%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Put
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 33
Team strength
Anderlecht
Kortrijk
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
37
AttackIn forecast
10
52
DefenceIn forecast
16
36
Form indexContext
16
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKortrijk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtKortrijk
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.34
-1.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
33%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
19.33
ShotsContext
12.33
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
26%
On target shareContext
27%
12.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
68%
Box shareContext
61%
3%
ConversionContext
3%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.00
Shots allowedContext
17.33
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
2.00
BlocksContext
3.33
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
50%
Save rateContext
55%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
562
PassesContext
355
472
Accurate passesContext
267
84%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.42
13.67
FoulsContext
9.33
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.60
ShotsContext
10.50
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
27%
On target shareContext
30%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
62%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.60
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.67
BlocksContext
3.50
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
50%
Save rateContext
65%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
489
PassesContext
370
405
Accurate passesContext
272
83%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.74
15.00
FoulsContext
10.10
11.13
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
WLL
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 3 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Kortrijk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 76 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
27L. Pétrot
4G. Biancone
79A. Maamar
61J. Bethume
55M. Kana
24E. Llansana
18L. Ambros
14D. Sikan
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Kortrijk
Confirmed XI
31M. Ilić(G)
5J. Ndjeungoue
22G. Ruyssen
4H. Murray-Campbell
36R. Kohon
68T. Ambrose
8N. Mehssatou
19B. Dejaegere
11S. Campbell
71Ken Masui
18J. Van Landschoot
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kortrijk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kortrijk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kortrijk · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Anderlecht wins1 draws1 Kortrijk wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 16 Mar 2024Anderlecht0–1Kortrijk
- 17 Sep 2023Kortrijk2–2Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Kortrijk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.33 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Anderlecht | Kortrijk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.33 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 67% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Kortrijk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.33 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 10.33 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 1.67 | 2.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Anderlecht | Kortrijk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.86 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.86 | 10.40 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 2.20 | 2.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Put 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 2.62
Red cards0.21league 0.15
Cards 5+42%league 21%
Fouls23.1league 21.2
Penalties0.33league 0.29
Home wins30%league 47%
Anderlecht1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L10 Aug 25H · Zulte Waregem2–30
Kortrijk3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Mar 24H · Antwerp0–10
- W20 Jan 24A · Standard Liege1–01
- L29 Oct 23H · Genk0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht3 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Kortrijk3 games · scored 1 · conceded 9
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
4
61-75
2
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Kortrijk10 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
