Anderlecht vs Lyon – 16 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 16 · 20:00 Lotto Park, Brussel

Anderlecht

1–2Full time

Lyon

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Anderlecht. Anderlecht had 5 days of rest, Lyon 4 and had to travel 567 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel567 kmRest days5 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 2

Anderlecht40%

Draw25%

Lyon35%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.40

Anderlecht37%

Draw26%

Lyon37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.34

Anderlecht41%

Draw25%

Lyon34%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.34

Anderlecht33%

Draw24%

Lyon43%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.57

Anderlecht40%

Draw25%

Lyon35%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.36

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brussel)

18°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 60%

Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 56

Team strength

Anderlecht

Lyon

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 56

43 Current StrengthIn forecast 60

37 AttackIn forecast 55

52 DefenceIn forecast 56

39 Form indexContext 60

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Anderlecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Anderlecht

Lyon

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

-0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

70% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.17 ShotsContext 14.40

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

28% On target shareContext 33%

10.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

67% Box shareContext 67%

4% ConversionContext 9%

1.20 OffsidesContext 2.13

9.67 Shots allowedContext 11.40

3.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.25 BlocksContext 2.10

2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

68% Save rateContext 72%

59% PossessionIn forecast 55%

555 PassesContext 463

474 Accurate passesContext 397

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.88

15.00 FoulsContext 11.70

12.11 Fouls sufferedContext 14.40

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Anderlecht LLWDW

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km43 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts
D6 SepH · Genk0–01.4 xPts
W3 SepH · Kortrijk1–02.3 xPts
L30 AugA · Union St. Gilloise0–30.9 xPts
L16 AugA · SK Beveren0–11.6 xPts

Lyon WDWD

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel567 km791 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 60 · 8 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected

D12 SepA · Paris FC0–01.4 xPts
W4 SepH · Auxerre3–12.2 xPts
D29 AugH · LE Havre1–12.1 xPts
W22 AugA · Toulouse2–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Anderlecht	Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 11 Sep	4Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	567 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	43 km	791 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Anderlecht Confirmed XI

4-4-2

26C. Coosemans(G)

6H. Augustinsson 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 79A. Maamar

10M. Winkler 8A. Amané 24E. Llansana 18L. Ambros

19Thelo Aasgaard 9M. CvetkoviÄ

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Lyon Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40R. Descamps(G)

76Mohamed Ouédraogo 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 21R. Kluivert

99N. Nartey 23T. Morton 6F. Tessmann

11K. Nakamura 17I. Openda 26K. Boudache

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Anderlecht Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lyon Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Anderlecht-0.9 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Lyon+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Anderlecht · Home No home games yet this season.

Lyon · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Anderlecht	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.92
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Anderlecht	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.30
Conceded per game	0.70	1.30
Match goals	2.10	2.60	2.92
Over 1.5	50%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	60%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Anderlecht	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Anderlecht	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	7.78
Corners conceded	3.33	5.44
Match total	9.66	13.22	13.50
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.10
Opponent cards	2.10	2.60
Match total	4.60	3.70	2.00
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 56 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 2.00

Red cards0.23league 0.00

Cards 5+30%league 0%

Fouls22.1league 25.0

Penalties0.34league 0.00

Home wins52%league 50%

Anderlecht

No previous matches with this referee.

Lyon1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W29 Jan 26H · PAOK4–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.