Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Thu, Aug 13 · 19:30
Lotto Park, Brussel
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,827 kmRest days4.1 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Anderlecht—%
Draw—%
PAOK—%
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 96
Team strength
Anderlecht
PAOK
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
37
AttackIn forecast
45
52
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPAOK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtPAOK
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
29%
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
14%
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
67%
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
17.50
FoulsContext
—
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
100%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.38
ShotsContext
9.14
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
34%
On target shareContext
31%
8.86
Shots in the boxContext
6.83
55%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
1.60
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.63
Shots allowedContext
8.00
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
4.29
BlocksContext
2.29
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.43
53%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
447
PassesContext
478
367
Accurate passesContext
399
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.78
FoulsContext
12.75
11.11
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
W
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,653 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 58 · 3 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
- W9 AugH · RAAL La Louvière2–12.0 xPts
PAOK
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,827 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
PAOK |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 9 Aug | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 6 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,827 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,653 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.7 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
79A. Maamar
4G. Biancone
27L. Pétrot
5M. N'Diaye
24E. Llansana
55M. Kana
61J. Bethume
18L. Ambros
9M. CvetkoviÄ
14D. Sikan
PAOK
Confirmed XI
1J. Pavlenka(G)
3J. Kenny
6Elustondo
5G. Michailidis
21A. Baba
20C. Zafeiris
7B. Santamaría
14A. Živković
65G. Konstantelias
11Taison
56A. Mythou
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
PAOK
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
PAOK · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Anderlecht wins0 draws0 PAOK wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 6 Aug 2026PAOK0–1Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | PAOK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 3 | 1 |
| Anderlecht | PAOK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | PAOK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.00 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Anderlecht | PAOK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.72 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.20 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 96 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 3.86
Red cards0.15league 0.16
Cards 5+42%league 43%
Fouls24.8league 29.6
Penalties0.46league 0.24
Home wins39%league 51%
AnderlechtNo previous matches with this referee.
PAOK2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Jan 26H · Real Betis2–04
- W5 Oct 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
PAOK3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
2
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
PAOK10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
5
2
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.