Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Anderlecht
4th · 31 pts · 17 played
WWWWL
First leg2–2
2–1Full time
St. Truiden
2nd · 33 pts · 17 played
WWWWW
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 35). Anderlecht had 6.2 days of rest, St. Truiden 7 and had to travel.
Rest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Anderlecht51%
Draw25%
St. Truiden24%
Anderlecht51%
Draw25%
St. Truiden24%
Anderlecht51%
Draw25%
St. Truiden24%
Anderlecht44%
Draw27%
St. Truiden30%
Anderlecht51%
Draw25%
St. Truiden24%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 33
Team strength
AnderlechtSt. Truiden
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
37
AttackIn forecast
37
52
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtSt. Truiden
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.53
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
76%
Scored inContext
82%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
14.47
ShotsContext
14.24
4.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.41
32%
On target shareContext
31%
8.35
Shots in the boxContext
9.47
58%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.15
OffsidesContext
2.93
10.88
Shots allowedContext
11.24
3.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.24
2.71
BlocksContext
3.06
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.12
64%
Save rateContext
74%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
438
PassesContext
438
357
Accurate passesContext
360
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.53
FoulsContext
11.94
10.59
Fouls sufferedContext
11.06
2.47
Yellow cardsContext
1.65
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
80%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.90
ShotsContext
13.60
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
31%
On target shareContext
32%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
58%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.80
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.20
BlocksContext
3.00
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
70%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
434
PassesContext
427
353
Accurate passesContext
355
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.00
FoulsContext
11.30
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 96 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
5M. N'Diaye
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
7I. Camara
74N. De Cat
13N. Saliba
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
29M. Stroeykens
91A. Bertaccini
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
18S. Juklerød
5S. Taniguchi
26V. Musliu
20R. Van Helden
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
2.22points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.78
St. Truiden · Away
1.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Charleroi | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Gent | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Antwerp | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Dender | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 2–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 30 of 48 · 1.88 per game | 32 of 48 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Anderlecht wins1 draws0 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 19 Oct 2025St. Truiden2–2Anderlecht
- 18 Feb 2024Anderlecht4–1St. Truiden
- 13 Aug 2023St. Truiden0–1Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 1.53 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 2.35 | 2.71 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 53% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 59% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 18% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Anderlecht | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.80 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.24 | 6.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 4.31 | |
| Match total | 10.12 | 10.37 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 14/17 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 11/17 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 8/17 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.65 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 4.94 | 3.77 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 12/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 11/17 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Anderlecht | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.70 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 11.11 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 3.90 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.81
Red cards0.33league 0.18
Cards 5+36%league 42%
Fouls25.0league 23.0
Penalties0.30league 0.30
Home wins39%league 42%
Anderlecht4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D14 Sep 25H · Genk1–13
- W27 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge2–01
- W1 Dec 23A · KVC Westerlo3–10
- W27 Aug 23H · Charleroi2–10
St. Truiden3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Sep 25A · Club Brugge KV0–22
- D28 Jan 24H · Genk1–12
- D24 Sep 23A · Genk3–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht17 games · scored 23 · conceded 17
5
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
St. Truiden17 games · scored 26 · conceded 20
1
1
0-15
7
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
9
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
