Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Zulte Waregem. Anderlecht had 3 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 6.1 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days3 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
Anderlecht49%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem27%
Anderlecht50%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem26%
Anderlecht49%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem27%
Anderlecht42%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem33%
Anderlecht48%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem27%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 35
Team strength
Anderlecht
Zulte Waregem
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
37
AttackIn forecast
27
52
DefenceIn forecast
31
40
Form indexContext
46
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtZulte Waregem
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-1.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
50%
Scored inContext
67%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.17
ShotsContext
13.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
28%
On target shareContext
35%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
67%
Box shareContext
63%
4%
ConversionContext
13%
1.20
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.67
Shots allowedContext
11.33
3.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.20
BlocksContext
2.83
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
68%
Save rateContext
79%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
555
PassesContext
366
474
Accurate passesContext
293
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.00
13.67
FoulsContext
11.83
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
70%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.71
ShotsContext
12.70
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
29%
On target shareContext
36%
10.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
68%
Box shareContext
64%
5%
ConversionContext
17%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.14
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.13
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
72%
Save rateContext
76%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
543
PassesContext
387
463
Accurate passesContext
309
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.01
14.00
FoulsContext
11.20
11.78
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
LWDWL
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 40 · 7 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Zulte Waregem
DWDWL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel65 km27 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 8 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 27 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.8 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
27L. Pétrot
12A. Omobamidele
79A. Maamar
10M. Winkler
30Ilias Koutsoupias
55M. Kana
18L. Ambros
14D. Sikan
21T. Bentayeb
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
1L. Bostyn(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
4L. Lemoine
23S. Diakité
8T. Claes
6E. Lofolomo
11M. Aké
22O. Niang
18A. Ementa
21Á. Zalán
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Kortrijk | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| SK Beveren | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 10 of 12 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Anderlecht wins0 draws1 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game3.00 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 22 Feb 2026Zulte Waregem2–4Anderlecht
- 10 Aug 2025Anderlecht2–3Zulte Waregem
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.33 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Anderlecht | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.10 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.83 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 10.33 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.50 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Anderlecht | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.89 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 10.20 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.20 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.26league 2.98
Red cards0.09league 0.12
Cards 5+23%league 25%
Fouls22.7league 22.1
Penalties0.34league 0.28
Home wins43%league 51%
Anderlecht5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Apr 26A · St. Truiden0–22
- L22 Mar 26H · Cercle Brugge2–31
- W1 Nov 25H · KV Mechelen3–11
- D26 Sep 25A · OH Leuven1–13
- W27 Jul 25H · KVC Westerlo5–24
Zulte Waregem2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D30 Aug 26A · KVC Westerlo2–20
- L13 Mar 26A · Gent0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht6 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Zulte Waregem6 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 21 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
