Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Angers were slight favourites.
Angers were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Angers. Angers had 7 days of rest, Estac Troyes 6.2 and had to travel 358 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel358 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Angers53%
Draw24%
Estac Troyes23%
Angers52%
Draw24%
Estac Troyes24%
Angers53%
Draw24%
Estac Troyes23%
Angers45%
Draw25%
Estac Troyes29%
Angers53%
Draw23%
Estac Troyes24%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
20°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 57%
RefereeAzzedine Souifi
- Cards per match 0.0
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Angers
Estac Troyes
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
22
AttackIn forecast
12
12
DefenceIn forecast
19
32
Form indexContext
32
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstac Troyes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersEstac Troyes
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.82
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
50%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.25
ShotsContext
13.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
20%
On target shareContext
19%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
65%
Box shareContext
75%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.25
15.50
Shots allowedContext
14.25
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
3.50
BlocksContext
3.00
5.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
89%
Save rateContext
60%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
406
PassesContext
373
338
Accurate passesContext
298
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.66
9.50
FoulsContext
11.00
14.75
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
—
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.00
ShotsContext
9.50
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
28%
On target shareContext
30%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
63%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.10
15.80
Shots allowedContext
19.60
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.60
2.80
BlocksContext
4.30
5.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.30
80%
Save rateContext
70%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
365
PassesContext
360
301
Accurate passesContext
290
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.10
FoulsContext
9.00
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
LWLD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km460 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 4 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Estac Troyes
DWLL
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel358 km532 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 32 · 4 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Estac Troyes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 6.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 358 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 460 km | 532 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 22 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
17Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
10M. Sbaï
8B. van den Boomen
14Y. Belkhdim
18J. Allevinah
9P. Peter
19A. El Ouazzani
Estac Troyes
Confirmed XI
33P. Beach(G)
3A. Ouzenadji
4M. Diaz
6A. Monfray
31Noah Donkor
29D. Karim
8M. Diop
23T. Nkada
11I. Gomis
17A. Mille
9J. Le Douaron
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estac Troyes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Estac Troyes+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Estac Troyes · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Estac Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Angers wins1 draws1 Estac Troyes wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 27 May 2023Angers2–1Estac Troyes
- 28 Aug 2022Estac Troyes3–1Angers
- 23 Jan 2022Angers2–1Estac Troyes
- 26 Sep 2021Estac Troyes1–1Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Estac Troyes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Angers | Estac Troyes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Estac Troyes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 7.33 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 0.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 1.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Angers | Estac Troyes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 11.55 | 10.89 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Azzedine Souifi 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards0.00league 2.89
Red cards0.00league 0.11
Cards 5+0%league 18%
Fouls20.0league 23.4
Penalties1.00league 0.32
Home wins0%league 32%
AngersNo previous matches with this referee.
Estac Troyes1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W29 Aug 26A · Lorient2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers4 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Estac Troyes4 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 8 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
