Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Angers. Angers had 7 days of rest, Lille 2.8 and had to travel 442 km.
Away travel442 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Angers30%
Draw29%
Lille40%
Angers27%
Draw26%
Lille46%
Angers30%
Draw30%
Lille41%
Angers24%
Draw28%
Lille47%
Angers31%
Draw30%
Lille40%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 53
Team strength
Angers
Lille
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
22
AttackIn forecast
42
12
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersLille
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
68%
Scored inContext
64%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
9.09
ShotsContext
14.00
3.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.55
37%
On target shareContext
33%
5.45
Shots in the boxContext
9.91
58%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.84
OffsidesContext
1.65
13.59
Shots allowedContext
9.86
5.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
2.86
BlocksContext
2.62
3.76
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.45
76%
Save rateContext
65%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
409
PassesContext
477
341
Accurate passesContext
406
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.77
FoulsContext
11.14
10.95
Fouls sufferedContext
13.05
1.36
Yellow cardsContext
1.91
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.23
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
80%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.80
ShotsContext
12.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
40%
On target shareContext
28%
5.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
56%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.00
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
2.10
BlocksContext
2.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
79%
Save rateContext
56%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
450
PassesContext
482
378
Accurate passesContext
414
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.20
FoulsContext
9.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km427 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel442 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 442 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 427 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
27L. Rao-Lisoa
8B. van den Boomen
93H. Belkebla
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
9G. Koyalipou
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
24C. Verdonk
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
22Tiago Santos
21B. André
32A. Bouaddi
27Félix Correia
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
28G. Perrin
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lille-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
1.82points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-3
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 1.09
Lille · Away
1.27points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-5
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | L 0–2 AW 2–0 H | W 7–1 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Metz | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AW 6–1 H |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 4–2 H |
| Marseille | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Nantes | W 4–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Nice | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | W 4–3 A |
| Monaco | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–5 A | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Rennes | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 29 of 63 · 1.38 per game | 31 of 63 · 1.48 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Angers wins2 draws4 Lille wins
Goals per game0.43 – 1.14
Over 2.50%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets14% · 57%
- 2 Nov 2025Lille1–0Angers
- 27 Apr 2025Angers0–2Lille
- 24 Aug 2024Lille2–0Angers
- 8 Apr 2023Angers1–0Lille
- 13 Nov 2022Lille1–0Angers
- 10 Apr 2022Angers1–1Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.23 | 3.00 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 41% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 41% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 36% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Angers | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.62 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 3.77 | |
| Match total | 8.24 | 9.91 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 9/21 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 7/21 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 4/21 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.41 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.27 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 2.68 | 4.00 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 8/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 9% 2/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Angers | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 9.90 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.90 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 3.65
Red cards0.40league 0.30
Cards 5+51%league 36%
Fouls26.8league 24.1
Penalties0.32league 0.39
Home wins43%league 49%
Angers3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D22 Sep 24H · Nantes1–11
- W8 Apr 23H · Lille1–02
- L15 Jan 23H · Clermont Foot1–22
Lille7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L28 Sep 25H · Lyon0–14
- W30 Mar 25H · Lens1–01
- W24 Nov 24H · Rennes1–03
- L25 Feb 24A · Toulouse1–30
- D12 Nov 23H · Toulouse1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers22 games · scored 22 · conceded 27
1
2
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
7
61-75
9
3
76-90
Lille22 games · scored 35 · conceded 31
4
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
8
46-60
3
7
61-75
20
5
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
