Angers vs Nice – 14 Mar 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 26 Sat, Mar 14 · 18:00 Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers

Angers 11th · 32 pts · 25 played WLLLW

0–2Full time

Nice 15th · 24 pts · 25 played DLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Angers were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Angers. Angers had 7.1 days of rest, Nice 6.1 and had to travel 738 km.

Away travel738 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Angers41%

Draw28%

Nice31%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.14

Angers41%

Draw27%

Nice32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Angers41%

Draw29%

Nice31%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.12

Angers34%

Draw29%

Nice38%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.27

Angers41%

Draw28%

Nice31%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.17

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Angers)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 120

Team strength

Angers

Nice

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

22 AttackIn forecast 26

12 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Angers

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Angers

Nice

0.92 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.92

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

64% Scored inContext 68%

36% Clean sheetsContext 12%

8.84 ShotsContext 11.00

3.52 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 36%

5.45 Shots in the boxContext 7.13

59% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.90 OffsidesContext 1.90

13.44 Shots allowedContext 14.72

4.92 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.12

2.80 BlocksContext 4.12

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57

76% Save rateContext 66%

43% PossessionIn forecast 48%

406 PassesContext 420

338 Accurate passesContext 350

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.76

11.12 FoulsContext 12.20

10.96 Fouls sufferedContext 11.68

1.48 Yellow cardsContext 2.24

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

60% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.80 ShotsContext 12.20

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

37% On target shareContext 34%

6.13 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

58% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.44 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.10 Shots allowedContext 15.40

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

2.10 BlocksContext 3.60

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

74% Save rateContext 63%

46% PossessionIn forecast 48%

428 PassesContext 411

361 Accurate passesContext 333

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.20 FoulsContext 11.70

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Angers

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,653 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel738 km1,372 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Angers	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Mar	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	738 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,653 km	1,372 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Angers Confirmed XI

3-5-2

12H. Koffi(G)

21J. Lefort 4O. Camara 2C. Arcus

26F. Hanin 8B. van den Boomen 93H. Belkebla 15P. Capelle 27L. Rao-Lisoa

9G. Koyalipou 7M. Sbaï

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

3-5-1-1

80Y. Diouf(G)

28A. Bah 4Dante 33A. Mendy

26M. Bard 24C. Vanhoutte 6H. Boudaoui 8M. Sanson 92J. Clauss

32K. Boudache

90Kevin Carlos

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Angers Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Angers+0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Nice+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Angers · Home 1.67points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-4
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.08

Nice · Away 0.58points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-9
Scored: 1.08
Conceded: 2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Angers	Nice
Nantes	W 1–0 AW 4–1 H	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H
Monaco	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
Lille	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Lorient	L 0–2 AW 2–0 H	D 3–3 HL 1–3 A
Toulouse	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	L 1–5 AL 0–1 H
Metz	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Paris FC	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Marseille	L 2–5 HD 2–2 A	L 1–5 H
LE Havre	L 1–2 A	L 1–3 A
Lens	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Auxerre	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
Strasbourg	L 0–5 A	D 1–1 H
Stade Brestois 29	L 0–2 H	D 2–2 HL 1–4 A
Lyon	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 AW 3–2 H
Rennes	D 1–1 H	L 0–4 HW 2–1 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Points	29 of 72 · 1.21 per game	24 of 72 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Angers wins1 draws4 Nice wins

Goals per game0.86 – 1.43 Over 2.543% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 14%

7 Dec 2025Nice0–1Angers
20 Apr 2025Nice2–1Angers
1 Sep 2024Angers1–4Nice
2 Apr 2023Angers1–1Nice
18 Sep 2022Nice0–1Angers
20 Feb 2022Nice1–0Angers

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Angers	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	0.92	1.20
Conceded per game	1.20	1.92
Match goals	2.12	3.12	2.48
Over 1.5	56%	76%
Over 2.5	24%	56%	45%
Over 3.5	16%	48%
Both teams scored	32%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	36%	12%
Failed to score	36%	32%
Games	25	25

	Angers	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.30
Conceded per game	1.30	2.00
Match goals	2.30	3.30	2.48
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	45%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Angers	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	3.46	4.79
Corners conceded	4.67	5.71
Match total	8.13	10.50	9.11
Over 8.5	38% 9/24	79% 19/24
Over 9.5	29% 7/24	71% 17/24
Over 10.5	17% 4/24	50% 12/24
Cards
Cards	1.52	2.32
Opponent cards	1.20	2.08
Match total	2.72	4.40	4.01
Over 3.5	36% 9/25	64% 16/25
Over 4.5	8% 2/25	40% 10/25

	Angers	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	5.40
Corners conceded	3.80	6.10
Match total	7.20	11.50	9.11
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.50
Opponent cards	1.20	2.50
Match total	2.80	5.00	4.01
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · François Letexier France · 120 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 3.72

Red cards0.27league 0.28

Cards 5+46%league 37%

Fouls22.1league 23.9

Penalties0.33league 0.38

Home wins52%league 49%

Angers5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

W17 Aug 25H · Paris FC1–03
L24 Nov 24A · Auxerre0–11
L18 Feb 23A · Strasbourg1–23
W11 Sep 22H · Montpellier2–12
D6 Nov 21A · Lille1–12

Nice10 with this referee

Record2-4-4 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.5 Pens for · against2 · 1

L1 Nov 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–11
L17 Jan 25A · Lille1–23
W7 Dec 24H · LE Havre2–13
D28 Sep 24A · Lens0–02
W26 Nov 23H · Toulouse1–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.