Angers vs Paris Saint Germain – 25 Apr 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 31 Sat, Apr 25 · 18:00 Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers

Angers 13th · 34 pts · 30 played LLDLD

0–3Full time

Paris Saint Germain 1st · 66 pts · 29 played LWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 20). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Angers had 7 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 3 and had to travel 264 km.

Away travel264 kmRest days7 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Angers6%

Draw13%

Paris Saint Germain80%

Expected goals 0.69 – 2.79

Angers7%

Draw14%

Paris Saint Germain79%

Expected goals 0.68 – 2.63

Angers7%

Draw14%

Paris Saint Germain80%

Expected goals 0.68 – 2.70

Angers4%

Draw10%

Paris Saint Germain86%

Expected goals 0.62 – 3.12

Angers7%

Draw14%

Paris Saint Germain78%

Expected goals 0.69 – 2.64

Over 2.5 68% Both score 47% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Angers)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 89

Team strength

Angers

Paris Saint Germain

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

22 AttackIn forecast 91

12 DefenceIn forecast 83

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Angers

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Angers

Paris Saint Germain

0.87 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.24

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86

0.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.92

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

63% Scored inContext 93%

33% Clean sheetsContext 52%

8.97 ShotsContext 17.24

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.52

36% On target shareContext 38%

5.59 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

59% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.83

13.77 Shots allowedContext 8.03

5.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

2.87 BlocksContext 2.78

3.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.45

76% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 69%

399 PassesContext 715

332 Accurate passesContext 653

83% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.74 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.10 FoulsContext 9.52

11.13 Fouls sufferedContext 9.17

1.47 Yellow cardsContext 1.07

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 29 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.79 xGVia Att/Def 2.05

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

50% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 60%

9.00 ShotsContext 15.60

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60

33% On target shareContext 42%

5.78 Shots in the boxContext 10.80

60% Box shareContext 69%

6% ConversionContext 16%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.22

13.40 Shots allowedContext 9.50

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

2.60 BlocksContext 3.63

4.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

77% Save rateContext 85%

42% PossessionIn forecast 67%

386 PassesContext 668

322 Accurate passesContext 600

83% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.71 Team ratingContext 7.07

11.50 FoulsContext 9.10

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Angers

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km220 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris Saint Germain

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel264 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Angers	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Apr	3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	264 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	220 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	2 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Angers Confirmed XI

5-3-2

12H. Koffi(G)

3J. Ekomié 21J. Lefort 24E. Biumla 25A. Bamba 27L. Rao-Lisoa

93H. Belkebla 8B. van den Boomen 15P. Capelle

7M. Sbaï 35P. Peter

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

21L. Hernández 51W. Pacho 6I. Zabarnyi 2A. Hakimi

8Fabián Ruiz 4Beraldo 24S. Mayulu

29B. Barcola 9Gonçalo Ramos 19K. Lee

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Angers Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Angers-0.2 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Paris Saint Germain+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Angers · Home 1.47points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-5
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.07

Paris Saint Germain · Away 2.07points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 9-2-3
Scored: 1.93
Conceded: 1.07

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Angers	Paris Saint Germain
LE Havre	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Rennes	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–3 AW 5–0 H
Lyon	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A
Lens	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Nice	L 0–2 HW 1–0 A	W 4–0 AW 1–0 H
Nantes	W 1–0 AW 4–1 H	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Monaco	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A
Lille	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Lorient	L 0–2 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Toulouse	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	W 3–1 HW 6–3 A
Metz	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A	W 3–0 HW 3–2 A
Paris FC	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Marseille	L 2–5 HD 2–2 A	W 5–0 HL 0–1 A
Auxerre	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H
Strasbourg	L 0–5 A	W 2–1 AD 3–3 H
Stade Brestois 29	L 0–2 H	W 3–0 A
Points	34 of 87 · 1.17 per game	63 of 84 · 2.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

0 Angers wins0 draws7 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game0.57 – 2.14 Over 2.557% Both scored43% Clean sheets0% · 57%

22 Aug 2025Paris Saint Germain1–0Angers
5 Apr 2025Paris Saint Germain1–0Angers
9 Nov 2024Angers2–4Paris Saint Germain
21 Apr 2023Angers1–2Paris Saint Germain
11 Jan 2023Paris Saint Germain2–0Angers
20 Apr 2022Angers0–3Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Angers	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	0.87	2.24
Conceded per game	1.33	0.86
Match goals	2.20	3.10	3.48
Over 1.5	60%	76%
Over 2.5	27%	62%	68%
Over 3.5	17%	34%
Both teams scored	37%	41%	47%
Clean sheets	33%	52%
Failed to score	37%	7%
Games	30	29

	Angers	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	2.40
Conceded per game	1.50	1.00
Match goals	2.00	3.40	3.48
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	20%	90%	68%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	47%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Angers	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	3.48	5.63
Corners conceded	5.03	3.26
Match total	8.51	8.89	9.16
Over 8.5	45% 13/29	48% 13/27
Over 9.5	31% 9/29	30% 8/27
Over 10.5	21% 6/29	19% 5/27
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.10
Opponent cards	1.23	1.66
Match total	2.73	2.76	3.94
Over 3.5	37% 11/30	24% 7/29
Over 4.5	10% 3/30	10% 3/29

	Angers	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.90
Corners conceded	5.60	4.10
Match total	8.60	9.00	9.16
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.00
Opponent cards	1.10	1.50
Match total	2.80	2.50	3.94
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 89 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.74league 3.67

Red cards0.24league 0.27

Cards 5+37%league 36%

Fouls24.5league 23.7

Penalties0.29league 0.36

Home wins40%league 47%

Angers10 with this referee

Record1-2-7 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 3

D18 Oct 25H · Monaco1–12
L20 Apr 25A · Nice1–21
L2 Mar 25H · Toulouse0–43
L1 Sep 24H · Nice1–46
L7 May 23H · Monaco1–23

Paris Saint Germain7 with this referee

Record6-1-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

W29 Mar 25A · Saint Etienne6–10
D30 Nov 24H · Nantes1–10
W19 Oct 24H · Strasbourg4–22
W4 Mar 23H · Nantes4–20
W6 Aug 22A · Clermont Foot5–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.