Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Angers. Angers had 7.9 days of rest, Rennes 7 and had to travel 110 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel110 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Angers28%
Draw23%
Rennes49%
Angers25%
Draw25%
Rennes51%
Angers29%
Draw23%
Rennes48%
Angers22%
Draw21%
Rennes57%
Angers29%
Draw23%
Rennes48%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
Heat stress
31°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 39%
RefereeGeoffrey Kubler
Team strength
Angers
Rennes
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
22
AttackIn forecast
63
12
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersRennes
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.57
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.50
ShotsContext
15.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
23%
On target shareContext
36%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
69%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
15.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
7.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.00
BlocksContext
6.00
6.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
87%
Save rateContext
60%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
395
PassesContext
412
327
Accurate passesContext
336
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.15
Team ratingContext
7.01
8.50
FoulsContext
11.50
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
17.20
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
31%
On target shareContext
36%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
64%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.88
16.30
Shots allowedContext
13.70
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.00
BlocksContext
4.30
5.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.29
74%
Save rateContext
68%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
350
PassesContext
459
286
Accurate passesContext
387
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.70
FoulsContext
11.80
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
LW
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km622 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 3 pts vs 3.0 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 110 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 622 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
17Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
8B. van den Boomen
14Y. Belkhdim
26A. Bermont
10M. Sbaï
18J. Allevinah
19A. El Ouazzani
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
24A. Rouault
4C. Cresswell
95P. Frankowski
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
17S. Szymański
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
9E. Lepaul
10L. Blas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Rennes+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Rennes · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Angers wins1 draws6 Rennes wins
Goals per game0.88 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 11 Apr 2026Rennes2–1Angers
- 31 Aug 2025Angers1–1Rennes
- 30 Mar 2025Angers0–3Rennes
- 15 Dec 2024Rennes2–0Angers
- 30 Apr 2023Rennes4–2Angers
- 23 Oct 2022Angers1–2Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.50 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Angers | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.80 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 14.00 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Angers | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 11.89 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Angers2 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Rennes2 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
1
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
5
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
