Angers vs Stade Brestois 29 – 28 Sep 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 6 Sun, Sep 28 · 16:15 Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers

Angers 14th · 5 pts · 5 played WLDDL

0–2Full time

Stade Brestois 29 16th · 4 pts · 5 played DLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.

Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 18). Angers had 8.9 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 7.9 and had to travel 310 km.

Away travel310 kmRest days8.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Angers28%

Draw28%

Stade Brestois 2944%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.43

Angers29%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2945%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.52

Angers28%

Draw28%

Stade Brestois 2944%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.44

Angers22%

Draw26%

Stade Brestois 2951%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.61

Angers29%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2944%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.51

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Angers)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 90

Team strength

Angers

Stade Brestois 29

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

22 AttackIn forecast 47

12 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Angers

Attack—

Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Angers

Stade Brestois 29

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.68

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.91

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

60% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

7.40 ShotsContext 15.40

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

35% On target shareContext 29%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

65% Box shareContext 66%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.40 Shots allowedContext 13.80

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.80 BlocksContext 5.25

4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

86% Save rateContext 59%

33% PossessionIn forecast 43%

315 PassesContext 367

258 Accurate passesContext 285

82% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.86

9.80 FoulsContext 12.00

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

0.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

60% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

7.90 ShotsContext 13.30

3.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

32% On target shareContext 31%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

64% Box shareContext 70%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.71 OffsidesContext 1.75

14.80 Shots allowedContext 13.20

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.60 BlocksContext 4.11

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

78% Save rateContext 55%

36% PossessionIn forecast 47%

334 PassesContext 412

274 Accurate passesContext 336

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.80 FoulsContext 11.70

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Angers

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,977 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Stade Brestois 29

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel310 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Angers	Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Sep	7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	310 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,977 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Angers Confirmed XI

4-4-2

12H. Koffi(G)

3J. Ekomié 21J. Lefort 4O. Camara 2C. Arcus

10H. Abdelli 93H. Belkebla 14Y. Belkhdim 17J. Kalumba

35P. Peter 11S. Chérif

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1R. Majecki(G)

2B. Locko 4M. Diaz 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

14R. Labeau-Lascary 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo

19L. Ajorque

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Angers Absences are shown before kick-off

Stade Brestois 29 Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Angers+0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Stade Brestois 29-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Angers · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Stade Brestois 29 · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Angers	Stade Brestois 29
Paris FC	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 H
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Angers wins1 draws3 Stade Brestois 29 wins

Goals per game0.83 – 1.67 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

9 Mar 2025Stade Brestois 292–0Angers
5 Jan 2025Angers2–0Stade Brestois 29
29 Jan 2023Stade Brestois 294–0Angers
21 Aug 2022Angers1–3Stade Brestois 29
20 Mar 2022Angers1–0Stade Brestois 29
12 Sep 2021Stade Brestois 291–1Angers

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Angers	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.80
Conceded per game	0.80	2.20
Match goals	1.40	4.00	2.53
Over 1.5	40%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	80%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	5	5

	Angers	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.80
Conceded per game	0.80	2.20
Match goals	1.40	4.00	2.53
Over 1.5	40%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	80%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Angers	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	2.25	4.00
Corners conceded	6.25	5.00
Match total	8.50	9.00	9.61
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	40% 2/5
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	0% 0/4	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.60
Opponent cards	1.00	1.60
Match total	2.60	3.20	4.09
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	40% 2/5
Over 4.5	0% 0/5	20% 1/5

	Angers	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	3.80
Corners conceded	5.33	5.20
Match total	9.00	9.00	9.61
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	1.60	1.20
Match total	3.30	3.00	4.09
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 90 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.69league 3.70

Red cards0.27league 0.36

Cards 5+41%league 40%

Fouls25.1league 24.2

Penalties0.39league 0.54

Home wins46%league 64%

Angers5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 1

L15 Mar 25H · Monaco0–21
W1 Dec 24A · LE Havre1–00
D20 Oct 24A · Toulouse1–14
D5 Feb 23A · Lorient0–04
L31 Oct 21H · Nice1–21

Stade Brestois 293 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

W3 May 23H · Nantes2–00
D30 Oct 22H · Reims0–01
L26 Sep 21H · Metz1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.