Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Alanyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Alanyaspor. Antalyaspor had 8 days of rest, Alanyaspor 6.1 and had to travel 123 km.
Away travel123 kmRest days8 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Antalyaspor34%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor39%
Antalyaspor34%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor39%
Antalyaspor33%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor40%
Antalyaspor27%
Draw26%
Alanyaspor47%
Antalyaspor34%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor39%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 24
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Alanyaspor
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
11
AttackIn forecast
18
14
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporAlanyaspor
0.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.65
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
61%
Scored inContext
74%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.13
ShotsContext
12.06
3.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
38%
On target shareContext
32%
6.07
Shots in the boxContext
7.65
64%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.18
OffsidesContext
1.90
13.52
Shots allowedContext
10.48
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.97
3.10
BlocksContext
2.83
3.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.72
69%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
329
PassesContext
396
259
Accurate passesContext
332
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.13
FoulsContext
11.97
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.32
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.70
ShotsContext
12.40
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
33%
On target shareContext
33%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
67%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.11
12.90
Shots allowedContext
10.40
6.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.50
BlocksContext
2.89
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
76%
Save rateContext
53%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
319
PassesContext
411
248
Accurate passesContext
348
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.40
FoulsContext
11.20
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km710 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel123 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 123 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 710 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
17E. Yeşilyurt
4H. Türkmen
89V. Sarı
7B. Balcı
23Jesper Ceesay
70D. Sinik
6S. Dikmen
8R. Safouri
11S. Ballet
22S. van de Streek
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
58Maestro
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
10G. Yalçın
12M. Elia
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Alanyaspor-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
1.00points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-8
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 2.20
Alanyaspor · Away
0.87points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-10-4
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.47
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 2–4 AL 1–3 H | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 AL 0–4 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 1–4 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 AL 2–5 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Samsunspor | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | L 2–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 A | W 5–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–4 H | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 27 of 90 · 0.90 per game | 32 of 90 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Antalyaspor wins3 draws0 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 8 Dec 2025Alanyaspor0–0Antalyaspor
- 28 Mar 2025Antalyaspor2–1Alanyaspor
- 27 Oct 2024Alanyaspor1–2Antalyaspor
- 24 May 2024Alanyaspor1–1Antalyaspor
- 5 Jan 2024Antalyaspor0–0Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.97 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.65 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 2.42 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 45% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 61% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 26% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Antalyaspor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.16 | 4.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.55 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 8.44 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 19/31 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 19/31 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 14/31 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.55 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.87 | 4.52 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 20/31 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 15/31 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Antalyaspor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 8.56 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.20 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.71league 4.45
Red cards0.25league 0.22
Cards 5+71%league 45%
Fouls25.1league 26.0
Penalties0.38league 0.28
Home wins42%league 41%
AntalyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
Alanyaspor5 with this referee
Record2-3-0
Cards · opp.3.4 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D4 Apr 26A · Gazişehir Gaziantep1–13
- D4 Oct 25A · Genclerbirligi2–23
- D16 Aug 25H · Rizespor0–01
- W25 May 25A · Konyaspor2–15
- W21 Apr 25H · Samsunspor1–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor31 games · scored 30 · conceded 51
3
12
0-15
5
5
16-30
5
7
31-45
5
10
46-60
5
4
61-75
7
13
76-90
Alanyaspor31 games · scored 37 · conceded 38
6
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
10
46-60
6
5
61-75
12
10
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
